It is that time of year again where we start to prepare for the winter ahead.

Each year, the Spectrum News weather team wants to help you get ready for all of the cold and snow heading our way. We do so, by looking at the main players in the weather world that affect winter weather. Large-scale weather features that are not looked at on a day-to-day basis, but a month-to-month basis, give us an idea of changes that move away from normal or average. Some of those include temperature trends, which then correlate with snowfall. Those features are looked at throughout the months of December, January, and February (although we understand we get snow before and after these months).

Starting with December, temperatures look to trend above the typical average in the low 30s (30 degrees to be exact). Knowing that, warmer temperatures support less snow. On average for the month we pick up 21.8” of snow. While we do expect milder temps, snowfall will be close to average (16.8” to 26.8”).  It’s important to remember this measurement is at the airport where official measurements are taken.  The lake snow belts, for example the Rt. 104 corridor to the east and areas of Wyoming County, will likely see more than that.

January is typically our coldest and snowiest month.  This year we’re expecting temperatures to trend around the average of 24.7 degrees.  There will likely be brutal shots of cold but they won’t have much staying power.  We also expect a more active month in terms of precipitation and because of the colder temps this will put us at to even above average snow for the month.  This means more than 23.2” for the month. 

Our pattern for February looks like it will shift back to one we’re expecting in December.  This means at to above average temps and below average snow.  As far as numbers that means a monthly average temp greater than 24.4degrees and below 16.5” of snow.

We all know winter doesn’t end there with more chances for snow and cold in March, April, and even early May.  No matter what we see those months, summer’s not too far away.

One thing we know for sure is that the winter months can throw a lot of curve balls our way. Remember to stay with Spectrum News and watch your local Weather On the 1s forecast for up to the minute updates!

Curious about the science behind the forecast? Dan Russell explains it all!