ROCHESTER, N.Y. — ​Doctors at UR Medicine Hospitals are concerned about the increase in the number of positive COVID-19 patients.

"With what's going on in the community right now, it's scary. The level of infectivity is very high, and approaching, if not, surpassing what it was in the first surge," said University of Rochester Medical Center Chief Medical Officer Dr. Michael Apostolakos. "Since there's a lag between when you start seeing cases and when they might get into the hospital, there's no end in sight right now, the number of patients that we're going to admit."

Dr. Apostolakos says no end in sight isn't even the worst of it. He's worried we will start to see an increase in deaths.

"Whether the virus is different, I don't know, but the total number of patients that are in the ICU, compared to total patients in the hospital is different. Back in the spring, almost half the patients that we admitted to the hospital ended up in the ICU and on the ventilator. Right now, of our 90 patients, about 10% or a little more are on the ventilator," said Dr. Apostolakos.

There are a number of theories as to why that's the case.

"So, our care I believe, has improved over time. That partially explains why, but there may be more to it and maybe related to the virus, but we don't know that," said Dr. Apostolakos.

Dr. Apostolakos describes his biggest worry.

"My biggest worry is for our staff and our ability to care for the community. We're seeing the numbers of patients rise exponentially. We haven't seen rises like this since the first surge. And I'm concerned that a lot of us are letting our guard down a little bit because we're tired. And we're asking faculty, staff, and the community to get their second wind. Remember, hopefully with vaccines, we can see a light at the end of the tunnel that it's not here yet, but if we can continue to practice masking, social distancing, keeping gatherings small, that we can flatten the curve again."

As for Thanksgiving, Dr. Apostolakos says, "What I would ask is to keep the gatherings as small as possible. I know it's hard, I know people are tired of this, they want to see family and loved ones. But I really believe that with vaccines on the horizon we're going to make a difference in the infectivity of this virus."

Dr. Apostolakos knows you've heard it over and over again, but continues to send the message to wash your hands, wear a mask, and socially distance.