The fight for control of the House will play out across the country this November, but no battleground may be more important than New York. As the map stands now, at least seven of the Empire State's 26 congressional seats are expected to see contentious general elections as Republicans seek to protect their slim majority in Washington and Democrats seek to elevate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn to the speakership.

What You Need To Know

  • The fight for control of the House will play out across the country this November, but no battleground may be more important than New York

  • As the map stands now, at least seven of the Empire State's 26 congressional seats are expected to see contentious general elections

  • Republicans are seeking to protect their slim majority in Washington and Democrats hope to elevate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn to the speakership
  • Candidates and their allies are building up their war chests for what is expected to be a bruising battle from Montauk to Buffalo

"We're going to retain those seats, those incredible members of Congress that the Republican Party sent to us from New York. That was one of the reasons we all know that we won the majority," House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La, told New York billionaire John Catsimitidis on his radio show in November. "Those are our majority makers, those members."

But New York's congressional map is set to change - and not for the first time since the 2020 Census was certified. In 2022, maps drawn by Democrats in Albany were shot down by the state's highest court, the Court of Appeals, and an expert was brought in as a "special master" to draw the district lines that are currently in place. Those lines greatly benefited Republicans, who flipped four Democratic seats that year and sent six freshmen to Washington from districts President Joe Biden won in 2020.

Then, last month, the Court of Appeals ordered the maps redrawn again by a bipartisan redistricting commission. Those maps are due Feb. 28, but the Democratic supermajorities in Albany can choose to draw their own district lines if the evenly divided commission can't reach an agreement.

The primaries are scheduled for June 25. Election Day is Nov. 5.

For now, candidates and their allies are building up their war chests for what is expected to be a bruising battle from Montauk to Buffalo. Republicans have pledged to spend more than $100 million on New York House races and Democrats promised tens of millions more. Already, millions have poured into Nassau and Queens counties for the NY-3 special election to replace Rep. George Santos, the disgraced and federally indicted Republican who in December became only the sixth House member to ever be expelled.

Santos' immediate predecessor, former Rep. Tom Suozzi, was picked by Democrats to run in the special election against the Republican choice: Mazi Pilip, a Nassau County legislator and an Israeli military veteran. Republicans have been tying Suozzi to the unpopular New York City Mayor Eric Adams and painting the relative moderate who challenged Hochul from the right in 2022 as "radical" and "extreme" on immigration and border policy. Democrats have been highlighting his career in local public service while tying Pilip to national Republicans' restrictive abortion ban proposals.

An Emerson College/PIX11 poll released last week had Suozzi with 45% support in the district, compared with Pilip's 42%, within the margin of error. The poll also found Biden and Hochul were deeply unpopular in NY-3. The special election is scheduled for Feb. 13.

Throughout New York, the election analysis outfit the Cook Political Report has designated seven House races as "competitive," more than any other state besides California. Four Republican-held seats, plus the previously GOP-held NY-3, are ranked as toss ups, meaning either party has roughly an equal shot at winning those elections. Rep. Nick LaLota, who represents NY-1 on the East End of Long Island, holds a "likely Republican" seat and Rep. Pat Ryan - the only New York Democrat facing a competitive general election fight - is in a "lean Democrat" seat in the Hudson Valley.

Ryan is being challenged by former NYPD deputy inspector Alison Esposito, former Rep. Lee Zeldin's lieutenant governor pick in his unsuccessful 2022 gubernatorial run. LaLota faces multiple Democratic challengers in Zeldin's old district, including former state Sen. James Gaughran and Stony Brook University professor Nancy Goroff. Goroff, who challenged Zeldin in 2020, has raised $600,000 so far.

LaLota's fellow Long Islander, Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, faces Democratic challenges from state Sen. Kevin Thomas and former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, who D'Esposito defeated in 2022. The Nassau County district as currently constituted voted for Biden by almost 15 points in 2020.

North of New York City, former Rep. Mondaire Jones is fighting to win back his old territory after being forced out of a 2022 primary by then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, who went on to lose to current Rep. Mike Lawler. Rep. Marc Molinaro, a Republican who represents a toss-up district that stretches from the Massachusetts border to Ithaca, is being challenged by his 2022 rival: Democrat Josh Riley, an attorney who has worked for the Senate Judiciary Committee.

And Democratic state Sen. John Mannion is one of the many Democrats vying to take on Rep. Brandon Williams in a Syracuse-area toss up district that voted for Biden by roughly eight percentage points in 2020. Politico reported that Mannion will roll out major endorsements from labor unions on Wednesday.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Jamaal Bowman is facing a primary from Westchester County Executive George Latimer in what is expected to be a competitive contest. Bowman is officially launching his campaign on Jan. 24 alongside Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.