The race for New York’s 22nd Congressional District went decisively to Democratic state Sen. John Mannion Tuesday night, unseating first-term Republican Rep. Brandon Williams. While a string of losses in 2022 had Democrats on edge in the state’s competitive congressional races, it’s becoming clear that Mannion was probably relatively safe from the beginning given how election night played out.
Grant Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, said that he never believed the hype that this race was going to be a big tossup the way it turned out to be in 2022, and can point to at least 15 reasons why Mannion won.
“It really looked to me on paper like it was a race that John Mannion should win,” he said. “I have to say, I wasn’t surprised by the outcome at all.”
He argued multiple factors lined up that pointed to a Mannion win, including the fact that President Biden took the newly formed district handily in 2020.
Redistricting teed up an advantage for Democrats, and looking at the returns it appears that Mannion outperformed 2022 nominee Francis Conole in heavily Democratic Onondaga County, unimpacted by the new maps, by a few points.
One of the most obvious impacts of redistricting was removing a portion of Oneida County where Francis Canole struggled in 2022 that seemed to work in Mannion’s favor as he won’t win Oneida County, but he appears to have done better than Conole by eight points or so. Additional ground in Cortland County new to the 22nd District also appeared to help Mannion.
Williams called Mannion to concede Tuesday night, stressing the privilege of serving in Congress and acknowledging the uphill battle he faced in the race.
Reeher stressed that while circumstances favored Mannion heading into Tuesday night, Williams was not blameless in his defeat.
He argued Williams didn’t meet constituents' expectations for engagement with the district or pushing district specific issues.
“I think it’s fair to say Brandon Williams, not that he didn’t pay attention to that at all, but I don’t think he scores very high marks on either of those dimensions. So that is what I would point to more than anything else, a candidate specific thing."
With U.S. House control still up in the air, Mannion, who Reeher called a good candidate for the district, may be forced to navigate challenging circumstances himself as he works to deliver for the constituents, a prospect he addressed earlier Wednesday.
“Work together, get things done. We’re going to have a Republican in the Senate, we might have a Republican House. If we do, you have to find ways to get your voice out there, negotiate within the legislation,” he said.