New York is getting extra attention this year as Democrats in the solidly blue state work to avoid the red wave that hit certain congressional districts in 2022. As New York takes center stage less than a week out from Election Day, Republicans are spending a good deal of time here.
While former President Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally Sunday is unlikely to tip New York’s electoral votes in his direction, Republican congressional candidates have a lot riding on turnout as House of Representatives control is almost certain to run through the Empire State.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will both make appearances in several of New York’s battleground districts at the end of the week.
Johnson will appear with U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler in the 17th Congressional District and Alison Esposito in the 18th District on Thursday. He will then join Rep. Marc Molinaro in the 19th District and Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd District on Friday. Jeffries will join Molinaro’s opponent, Josh Riley, in the 19th District on Friday.
Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has led Democrats' congressional turnout operation after taking heat for contributing to surprising losses when she was running in 2022, said Wednesday that Republicans are wasting their time in a blue state that she called “Harris-Walz country."
“Every minute they’re spending here in the Hudson Valley or Manhattan is time they aren’t spending in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan or Georgia,” she said. “We’re staying if that’s where you’d like to spend your time, you’re welcome to do that but I don’t think it’s going to have a single impact on any voter.”
Shawn Donahue, clinical assistant professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, told Spectrum News 1 it’s a bit more complicated.
He argued that a lack of enthusiasm for Hochul herself drove low turnout among Democrats and put districts, which had already been altered by a special master drawn map that nudged them toward the Republican column, even more in play than they already were.
This time, Donahue said the presence of Kamala Harris on the ticket, and coordinated get-out-the-vote efforts led by Hochul and others will likely make a difference even though the races are very tight, and some areas of the state are trending more Republican than in past years. Donahue said Democrats will have to pick up at least two to three Republican held seats for Hochul’s turnout push to be a success for Democrats.
“With Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket and [U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand], you have to think that Democrats are going to turn out in higher numbers than they did in 2022 when the electorate was more Republican than New York generally is,” he said.
Donahue said the impact of Proposition 1, or New York’s Equal Rights Amendment, is also a turnout tossup. He explained it remains to be seen if the aggressive campaign against the initiative by Republicans will mute what has been at times unexpectedly successful turnout for abortion referendums across the country that didn’t attempt to fit other elements into the amendment language as New York’s does.