New York voters' bad mood appears to be getting worse, according to the Siena College poll released Monday morning.
In February, 45% of voters told the survey the state was heading in the wrong direction, compared with 41% who believed it was on the right track. Those numbers have gotten worse since then.
The poll found only 35% of voters believe the state is heading down the right track amid high gasoline prices, growing concerns around crime and public safety and the continued uncertainty of inflation. A majority, 52%, believe New York is on the wrong track -- a similar spread for voters who believe the nation overall is heading in the wrong direction.
As SUNY Albany political science professor Bruce Gyory points out, the question is "the best macro barometer for the voters' mood" in the state. The big difference between February and today? Independents, moderates and white voters, as well as those who are earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are souring on New York.
"It goes to show one-party rule in Albany isn't working right now for New Yorkers," said Republican Assembly Minority Leader Will Barclay. "We have a spike in violent crime, the economy is teetering and I think there's a lot of angst out there."
The poll highlights a potentially pivotal time for Gov. Kathy Hochul as she runs for a full term this year and faces her first electoral test as governor in a June 28 primary. Out of these concerns surrounding New York, Hochul is given low marks on her handling of crime and the economy as well as leadership. A full 45% of voters, a plurality, are prepared to elect a generic someone else.
And yet, for now, her opponents in the Democratic primary do not appear to have broken through with voters. New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams' favorable rating drops off with moderate, suburban and white voters. Rep. Tom Suozzi has struggled, also, with white voters, but is not gaining much traction with Black voters, Gyory said.
Hochul's numbers remain stronger with the kinds of voters who could show up in June.
"The best, in fact the only real way, to win a statewide Democratic primary remains putting together a multi-racial/ethnic and cross regional coalition which unites traditional liberals and moderates," Gyory said. "The numbers therefore show that Hochul is today the only candidate who can do that."
And Gyory pointed to the TV airwaves, where Hochul's opponents -- including Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin, businessman Harry Wilson and Suozzi -- have sought to saturate with their messages in the last several weeks. Hochul only began advertising last week, dumping an eight-figure ad buy into the race.
"The good news for Hochul is that this ad mixture of a sour public mood and the TV assault from her opponents does not seem to threaten Hochul in a Democratic primary, which means she is still on track to win a comfortable primary victory," Gyory said. "Given her resource advantages in this primary, if her TV ads and overall messaging for the primary, improve her standing among moderate Independents, especially white Catholics and blue collar voters, both Hispanic, Black and Asian as well as whites, her poll numbers heading into November could improve. Especially if the Republican primary does not produce a candidate who can coalesce all of those voters who today say that they would prefer someone else."