It's sometimes best to think of a gubernatorial campaign in two phases. In one, a candidate outlines what they would actually do in office: cut taxes, aid for schools, etc. But for Republicans like Rep. Lee Zeldin, the first phase is to demonstrate you can actually win.
And that's no small task for a Republican in New York, where the party is shut out of power statewide and hasn't won a race statewide since 2002. Zeldin was in Saratoga Springs on Monday on another leg of trip to upstate counties to make his case he can break the streak of losses by Republicans.
New Yorkers, Zeldin said, are looking for balance in state government.
"They're looking for political balance in Albany and they're looking for geographic balance in Albany," he said. "Every New Yorker deserves to feel like they have a voice and representation in our state's Capitol. But never at the expense of New Yorkers who do not have a voice."
And yet, voters have handed supermajorities to Democrats in the state Senate and Assembly, empowering them to approve package after package of long-sought progressive goals over the year. The record-setting $212 billion state budget this year hiked taxes on millionaires and approved billions of dollars in additional aid to schools.
Zeldin's pitch, in part, is New Yorkers can still care about schools, but they also want to feel safe on the streets and be able to afford to live here.
"This isn't a red on blue, Republican on Democrat — New Yorkers of all walks of life are talking about these issues," he said. "These are the issues that are important to all New Yorkers. These aren't just issues that are important to Republicans or to Democrats."
Zeldin's early start has allowed him to soak up endorsements from local Republican and Conservative Party leaders. He is getting some company in the race for the Republican nomination, with former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino confirming to Spectrum News on Monday he will launch a second bid.
Additional candidates could include Andrew Giuliani, the son of the currently embattled former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro.
Not mentioned by Zeldin today was the rabbit start he is potentially getting on fundraising, and the inevitability it comes with so many early nods.
Astorino's pitch in 2014 was that of a Republican who was able to win in a key suburban county. Molinaro ran as a counterweight to the baleful visage of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Zeldin will likely combine those pitches, and more, as a Long Islander who hopes (and will have) to appeal to independents and moderate Democrats.
Cuomo's own formula in the past has been to tout a raft of middle-income economic issues, like a cap on property tax increases, while also running as a social progressive. In 2018, as the Trump era set partisanship practically in stone, Cuomo ran as a Democrat who could serve as a foil to the Republican administration.
He now faces multiple investigations, though has not ruled out running for a fourth term in 2022.
Republicans have struggled since the end of George Pataki's administration. They no longer hold power in the state Senate and have dropped to third in statewide enrollment as more and more New York voters choose not to affiliate with a political party.
At the moment, Democrats control all county executive posts south of Rockland County. There are few geographic safe spaces for a statewide Republican candidate. Zeldin will have to crack that code and then some to win.
"It's about performing well in the New York City suburbs. It's about getting into New York City and working hard to earn those votes and then going into all the other cities we have all across upstate," Zeldin said. "It's a 62-county strategy in areas where Republicans may perform the best. We're starting early to get everywhere."