After several days of mild weather, a return to cold weather arrives to ring in the new year. This pattern will feature temperatures at average to at times below average. It is expected to last through the middle of the month, possibly into the 3rd week of January.
While we do not foresee any significant area-wide snow storms, the pattern will be favorable for that to occur.
Cold air will generate lake-effect snow
There will be shifting bands of lake-effect snow setting up January 1st and continue through the weekend and likely into next week. Weak fronts will also pass through from time to time and bring everyone some flurries and light snow showers.
The lake-effect over the coming days will be heaviest east and southeast of Lake Ontario where several inches will likely pile up Wednesday night into the weekend.
There will also be some lake-effect off Lake Erie, south of Buffalo in ski country.
Outside of the narrow bands of lake-snow, it will just be cold with flurries from time to time.
Radar forecast through Friday
New Year's Day rain transitions to snow showers.
Wednesday night through Friday the lake-effect sets up on a west-northwest wind. This will focus the bands along the south shore of Lake Ontario. The steadiest will likely be over sections of Wayne County to near Syracuse.
Friday morning the band will lift a little north to near the south side of the Tug Hill.
Friday night into the weekend we will be in and out of lake-effect snow showers on a northwest wind. This will favor the Southshore as well as the Fingerlakes.
While we do not expect intense lake-effect it will be coming and going, shifting around through the weekend. While very manageable, with the cold temperatures it will stick around. Each day will bring a few inches of accumulations where it is most persistent.
From Wednesday afternoon through Sunday we can expect an inch or two for many across the state, with locally one to possibly 2 feet in the most persistent lake snow. While this sounds major, it is over 4 to 5 days and common for the season and will be manageable. If it were to occur in 12 hours, then it would be a major impactful event.
So get outside and enjoy a few weeks of winter weather. The skiing is going to be fantastic! I assume all ski areas will be nearly 100% open by the middle on the month with plenty of snow making. Hopefully some good ice fishing as well.