It is that time of year again where we start to prepare for the winter ahead. Each year, the Spectrum News weather team wants to help you get ready for all of the cold and snow heading our way. We do so by looking at the main players in the weather world that affect winter weather. Large-scale weather features that are not looked at on a day-to-day basis, but a month-to-month basis, give us an idea of changes that move away from normal or average. Some of those include temperature trends, which then correlate with snowfall. Those features are looked at throughout the months of December, January, and February (although we understand we get snow before and after these months).

Starting with December, temperatures look to trend above the typical average in the low 30s (32.1 to be exact). Knowing that, warmer temperatures support less snow. On average for the month we pick up 22.4” of snow. If our predications are correct, Buffalo and Western New York in particular will see under two feet for the month! It’s important to remember, however, that lake effect snow is not included in these forecasts. If we have a few cold blasts move through Buffalo as Lake Erie remains “mild” and free of ice, the lake effect could really stack up.

January in Western New York is typically much cooler than the previous months. We expect very cold air to move in this year which will sit at or below our average of 22.9 degrees. Colder air typically coincides with big snow events. That being said, it makes sense that the forecast for the region is to see above average snowfall. Average in this case sits at 20.3.”

In February, Western New Yorkers are typically itching to get the winter over with. After decent amounts of snowfall from the previous months, we start to crave the spring warm up. This year, forecasts are pointing to that happening a little bit sooner than normal. This means that temperatures are expected to climb to at or above average levels. With warmer temperatures, less widespread snow is expected. 24.3” is the average for the month. Keep in mind however, once temperatures warm up, ice coverage on Lake Erie will start to thin and eventually melt. This could get the lake effect snow machine cranking again.

One thing any Western New Yorker knows for sure is that the winter months can throw a lot of curve balls our way. Remember to stay with Spectrum News and watch your local Weather On the 1s forecast for up-to-the-minute updates!

Curious about the science behind the forecast? Dan Russell explains it all!