Before the season started I did a deep dive into what the expectations should be for Josh Allen's sophomore season.
Through five games, the numbers show progress as does the eye test.
But there is still room to grow.
Allen, like all players, will always be working on improving his game, especially for him when it comes to accuracy and decision-making.
The next immediate step for me is for Allen to throw for over 300 yards in a game.
It is a feat already accomplished 56 times across the NFL through six weeks this season — 28 different QBs are part of that club.
But this is a club the Bills have not been much a part of for quite some time.
No Bills QB has eclipsed 300 yards passing in 39 games, the team's longest stretch since 59-straight games from Week 12 in 2006 to Week 7 2010. The last to do it was Tyrod Taylor against the Dolphins Week 16 of the 2016 season, and he needed overtime to reach the mark. Since 2006, the Bills have had seven full seasons where they've failed to have a quarterback throw for 300 yards in a game.
Here are the names to do so over that span: Ryan Fitzpatrick (7), Kyle Orton (3), J.P Losman (2), Taylor (1).
Yes, your math is right. A Bills quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards just 13 times over the past 13 seasons.
So as you can see, this is not a Josh Allen problem. It is a problem that dates back to before Allen was a teenager.
But if he is the one to finally bring this franchise out of their QB hell he must begin to do the things that few before him have.
Kyler Murray did it this season in his first career game. Daniel Jones did it in his first career start. The only first round QBs since 2013 not to hit that mark at some point during their first 16 career starts are Dwayne Haskins (just one start so far before going back to bench), Josh Rosen, and EJ Manuel.
Now it is time for Allen to join a fraternity with seemingly an open enrollment.
By no means does slinging it for 300+ yards mean Josh Allen will be great. Eli Manning and Marcus Mariota did it earlier this year before getting benched.
However, when it comes to the playoffs, this number matters. This decade, only five teams have made the playoffs without producing a 300-yard passer during the regular season, one of which is the 2017 Bills.
But just three of those five have won in that postseason.
This Sunday the mark is there for the taking, if the Bills want it.
The Dolphins’ pass defense is 26th in the NFL in allowing 270.2 yards per game, but worst in the league by allowing 9.51 yards per play. Most of their games have been blowouts, so teams have been running the ball on them, skewing the numbers a bit.
The two highest passing performances of Allen's career were the first two weeks of the season (254 @ NYJ and 253 @ NYG). Against the Giants he had 210 at half before the offense went conservative. That approach let New York back into the game, so could Brian Daboll learn from that and keep the pedal down should things open up early likewise against Miami?
The Bills’ 4-1 start is their best since 2011, a season in which Fitz went over 300 yards passing three times.
If this season is going to be different its quarterback needs to be different, by being the same as the vast majority of the NFL.
Let's see it Sunday with the Bills’ most prolific passer of the decade going against them.