WASHINGTON — The race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin is getting tighter. A non-partisan political handicapper now considers the race a toss-up, after its recent poll showed Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s, D-Wis., lead shrinking.
“Our swing state polling project last week found this is the closest of the presidential battlegrounds when it came to Senate races,” said Jessica Taylor, the U.S. Senate and Governors editor at The Cook Political Report (CPR).
CPR on Tuesday said its most recent polling showed a shift in the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss Up." This came after the organization’s latest poll found Baldwin, the incumbent, with 49% of the vote, compared to 47% for Republican businessman Eric Hovde.
“The momentum is clearly on our side, because I'm focused on talking about issues,” Hovde said. “I'm talking about inflation, our open borders, the problems with our healthcare system, housing affordability.”
Democrats have long seen Hovde as a threat, but only recently has polling shown the race this tight, a statistical tie.
“This race was always going to be a toss up, that’s why Tammy Baldwin is working every day to unite Wisconsinites of all stripes and win,” a spokesperson for Baldwin told Spectrum News in a statement. “Next month, voters will reject California bank owner Eric Hovde's insults, lies, and extreme policy positions and send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate to keep fighting for them.”
The latest CPR poll found an 11 point swing among independent voters toward Hovde since August, though Baldwin still maintained a lead among this group.
“That's helped him close that gap,” Taylor said.
She added that while it’s hard to unseat an incumbent, this race is closely tied to the presidential race, so if Donald Trump does well in Wisconsin, he could help drag Hovde across the finish line.
“In 2016, we saw every single Senate race go the same way as the presidential race. In 2020, only Susan Collins managed to win in Maine, even as Joe Biden carried her state,” Taylor said. “So we see that these races are very closely tied to the presidential results. So I think the better Kamala Harris is doing, the more that helps Tammy Baldwin. The better Donald Trump is doing, the more that helps Eric Hovde."
And though Baldwin beat her opponent in 2018 by double digits, Taylor said that was an anomaly.
“It was a backlash to President Trump during his first midterm cycle,” she explained. “And also, she had a weaker opponent in Leah Vukmir.”
Hovde has put millions of dollars of his own money into the race, making it more competitive.
“Wisconsin is more difficult during a presidential year, I think, than a midterm year,” Taylor said.