NORTH CAROLINA — Forecasting hurricanes is never easy. Hurricane Dorian was a great example of that.

To predict how strong a storm will be and exactly where it will track, there are many different variables we must consider. Water temperatures along the path of the storm and steering currents in the upper levels of the atmosphere can be impacted by systems across much of the Northern Hemisphere. There are many other factors that also extend from near the ground or ocean to all the way in the sky to where jets fly.

Our ability to take measurements in the atmosphere, particularly over the ocean, really is very limited. To overcome that, there are group of Air Force reservists that fly planes into the middle of storms. They send back valuable data from inside the storm and the environment around that storm.

We then ingest that important information into computer forecast models.

You may have heard us refer to one of those models as the "Euro." It's a forecast model developed in Europe that has a pretty good track record forecasting tropical systems. Several runs of the European showed Hurricane Dorian tracking directly up the North Carolina coast or just offshore.

It is important that we don't just look at one model though, so forecasters use something call ensemble forecasts.  Very small changes are made in the initial data that is fed into the model.  The model is then run to see how that change affects the forecast. We then compare the outcome of this ensemble of forecasts. When each run is close together, we can become more confident in the forecast.

In the Weather on the 1s forecast center, we worked around the clock analyzing the European model, its ensemble forecasts, and many other models. You can count on us for the latest.

PODCAST: Is N.C. Ready for Another Hurricane? Lessons Learned from Florence.

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Is North Carolina ready for another big hurricane? Tim Boyum and Ben McNeely are joined this week on the “Tying It Together” podcast by a host of weather experts. Together, they delve into what we learned from Hurricane Florence, and how the state is better prepared for future storms.