Elections on Tuesday in Wisconsin and Florida could serve as an early gauge to President Donald Trump’s policies in his return to the White House.

In Wisconsin, the officially nonpartisan race for a state Supreme Court seat has become a test of Trump adviser Elon Musk's influence as his political organization boosts conservative Brad Schimel and progressives back liberal Susan Crawford, who has made anti-Musk messaging a centerpiece of her campaign.

In Florida, two U.S. House special elections will decide who replaces congressmen tapped to join the Trump administration, although one — Matt Gaetz — withdrew from consideration and chose not to return to Congress. The other race is to fill the seat once held by Mike Waltz, now Trump’s national security adviser.

Schimel and Crawford made a final blitz across the state Monday, the day before voting concludes in a race where early turnout has surged and spending is nearing $100 million.

Musk held a rally in Green Bay on Sunday night to push for Schimel, a Waukesha County judge and former Republican attorney general. He faces Crawford, a Dane County judge and former attorney who fought for abortion rights and to protect union power.

Liberals currently hold a 4-3 advantage on the court, but the retirement of a liberal justice this year put the ideological balance in play. The court in battleground Wisconsin is expected to rule on abortion rights, congressional redistricting, union power and voting regulations in the coming years.

Through Sunday, the last day of early voting, at least 644,800 people had cast ballots, based on a Monday tally from the Wisconsin Elections Commission. That number will rise as some municipalities report additional ballots collected over the weekend.

As it stands now, early voting numbers were 57% higher, or about 235,000 ballots greater, than the 409,755 early ballots counted the day before the last Supreme Court election in 2023.

Milwaukee County, the state’s largest county and the one that is home to the most Democrats, has seen a 40% increase in early voting compared with 2023. Liberal Dane County, the state’s second largest county and home to the state capital of Madison and the University of Wisconsin, has seen a 43% increase.

Voting was up even more in the three suburban Milwaukee counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, which are commonly referred to as the WOW counties. Ballot returns were up 62% in Waukesha County and 53% in Ozaukee County. In Washington, the most heavily Republican of the three counties, early voting was nearly double two years ago.

Tuesday’s special elections to replace Gaetz and Waltz will be held in two of the state’s GOP strongholds, but Democrats hope that strong fundraising in both districts is an indicator the races will be more competitive than they were in the last election just five months ago.

Control of the U.S. House is not at stake, but the outcome of the special elections could give congressional Republicans some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber. Republicans hold 218 seats, the minimum needed for a majority in a fully seated House. Democrats hold 213 seats, with two additional vacant seats most recently held by Democratic lawmakers.

In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont are running to replace Gaetz. Patronis is the state’s chief financial officer. He received Trump’s endorsement in the crowded 10-person primary. Valimont is a gun control activist. She challenged Gaetz for the seat in November and received 34% of the vote.

In Waltz’s old 6th Congressional District, the candidates are Republican state Sen. Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil, a public school educator in Osceola County. Fine represents a Brevard County-based state Senate district located outside the boundaries of the Palm Coast-area U.S. House seat he hopes to fill. He won three-way primary on Jan. 28 with Trump’s endorsement.

The 1st Congressional District borders Alabama on the Gulf Coast in the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle. It is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. The district is among the most reliably Republican areas of the state. Trump received about 68% of the district vote in 2024, slightly outperforming the 66% Gaetz received in his reelection bid.

On the other side of the state, the 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.

Trump carried the district in 2024 with 65% of the vote. Waltz received about 67% of the vote in his final House reelection bid.