Election day is still more than six months away, but Democrats are making major ad buys in media markets across the country to reach voters.
House Majority PAC, a political action committee associated with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., announced Sunday it was reserving $168 million in television and digital advertisements, with more than $27 million worth of ads reserved in California’s media markets.
“We've said from day one that the path back to the majority goes to the state of California. There are 16 districts that President Biden won that Republicans currently occupy. Five of those are located in the state of California,” said House Majority PAC President Mike Smith in an interview with Spectrum News. “We have battle tested incumbents, including in the state of California and some top tier challenger races, Democratic parties that are outpacing the Republican counterparts right now. And we're running against a Republican brand that's out of touch with the American people.”
The PAC reserved more than $18 million in ads for the Los Angeles media market alone, more than $2 million in the Fresno market, and more than $1 million reserved in both Sacramento and Bakersfield. The political action committee is also making a purchase of nearly $2 million throughout the state in Spanish language ads, as President Joe Biden struggles in the polls with ethnic communities. Democrats, Smith said, have been taking Latino, Black and AAPI communities for granted.
"That's part of the reason why we've invested in significant qualitative, quantitative research, talking to AAPI voters, talking to people on the ground, putting a plan in place to actually communicate directly to them — and not just the day before the election, but in the weeks and months leading up to the election,” explained Smith. “We're not treating them as a turnout universe, but actually people that need to be talked to about what we stand for, and why they should vote Democrat...And that's a big piece of this ad reservation right now.”
Reserving air time this early has a two-fold effect: first, reserving airtime is less expensive this far out from the election; second, it restricts available airtime for a candidate’s opponent to purchase.
“It's it's a zero sum game, right, where we only have a certain number of ad slots,” explained Casey Burgat, director of the legislative affairs program at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management. “When those purchases are made, and leaves fewer slots available to other candidates, individual parties, any interest groups, literally any fewer commercials are out there for anyone trying to purchase them.”
Despite the growing investments in digital media buys, over the air television ads still prove to be an effective method of reaching voters — especially in media markets as big as Los Angeles.
“The Los Angeles media market alone includes between 17 and 18 million people. It's larger than 47 of the 50 states all in itself,” pointed out Daniel Schnur, a professor at the University of Southern California. “There simply isn't enough of a news media platform to cover all of these House races in the way that might be the case in a less populated area. So that means that the campaigns end up relying overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly on advertising.”
The announcement of the initial ad buy for the cycle is far bigger than the pac’s initial 2022 buy of $102 million, but California’s nearly $28 million in ads is smaller than the initial $35 million “Battleground California Fund” announced last year. House Majority PAC says these ad buys are part of that battleground fund, but that the remaining money will be spent on digital ads, mailer, and field operations as well.
The ads are expected to hit television screens in the coming months. Some of the races Democrats are targeting include Reps. John Duarte (CA-13), David Valadao (CA-22), Mike Garcia (CA-27), Young Kim (CA-40), Ken Calvert (CA-41), Michelle Steel (CA-45), and the open seat vacated by Katie Porter (CA-47).
Schnur said while it’s impossible to know right now whether these ads will increase voter turnout, the tone of these ads are very important.
“If an advertisement, whether on TV or radio or digital, is a positive message talking about why one candidate would be such a good representative — that can boost voter turnout, particularly among that candidate's party's base. But a negative message is designed to drive down turnout. And if both candidates are running very high profile, but very intensely negative campaigns against each other, they're essentially discouraging each other's loyal supporters from turning out. So increasing the advertising doesn't necessarily lead to increased voter participation. It depends on what the candidates are saying.”
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the Republican equivalent of the House Majority PAC has yet to release its plans for an initial ad buy, but took a swipe at the plan released by Democrats, telling Spectrum News that Democrats are quick to make big ad buys each cycle, but make cuts closer to the election in an effort to save money.
“We have incredibly strong Republican incumbents in the toughest races, far better recruits, and a political environment that seems to favor Republicans. If the resources are there, we will hold the Majority this fall," said CLF President Dan Conston in a statement to Spectrum News.