The month of January in the St. Louis area had snow and frigid temperatures over the first three weeks, with the last week finally seeing a warming trend.
How does February and the rest of winter look?
The most famous prognosticator, Punxsutawney Phil out of Punxsutawney, Pa., gives his prediction every Feb. 2 on Groundhog Day. However, given Phil’s dismal track record over the past century, I decided three years ago to see how my dog, Boomer, would do and every year since we put him to the test.
Boomer's record stands at 66%. He correctly predicted an early spring in 2022, but in 2023, he saw his shadow, which meant more winter and that year was warmer than average. Last year, in 2024, he did not see a shadow and February and March were warmer than normal. Not a bad record for the black lab.
In ancient times, celebrations occurred on Feb. 2 to mark the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox.
Germans had their own take on this holiday, using badgers and other small animals. If these animals saw their own shadows, it meant more cold and snow for the rest of the season.
As German immigrants settled into parts of Pennsylvania, they brought this tradition with them. According to history.com, the first Groundhog Day celebration occurred on Feb. 2, 1887, in Punxsutawney, Pa.
As the story goes, per stormfax.com, Clymer Freas, a local newspaper editor, invited a group of local business owners and groundhog hunters to participate. They would trek to now Gobbler’s Knob, and observe a groundhog for a shadow.
They would then relay this information to the public with the American tradition, stating: “If the sun shines on Groundhog Day; Half the Fuel and half the hay,” meaning if a shadow was cast, six more weeks of winter would prevail.
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Part of the squirrel family, these animals have several names, as folklifetoday.com, part of the library of congress, shares, including: woodchuck, marmot, land beaver, whistler and whistler-pig.
Besides Phil, Staten Island Chuck also provides winter season predictions. Chuck lives at the Staten Island Zoo and began prognosticating in 1981 for the folks of New York City.
Phil’s accuracy isn’t anything to brag about. In the past ten years, Phil has only been correct 30% of the time. Flipping a coin would yield better results. Whereas, Chuck boosted an accuracy rating of 82% over a 32-year span.
As for 2025, I woke Boomer at sunrise and took him outside. He glanced around, and with some sun peeking though the clouds, he saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter.
Here’s the video of Boomer’s prediction.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, February overall looks to be either close to average or slightly warmer than normal. Whether that pattern will hold until the first day of spring, we’ll have to wait and see.
Even if Phil and Boomer both predict an early spring doesn't mean we are done with winter.
The St. Louis area has seen some big snow storms later in the season.
Some of those storms are part of the area's all-time biggest snows.
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