Dust off those gloves and bats because Cardinals baseball is back!
After winning the 2022 National League Central Division, the Cards fell to the Phillies in the NL Wild Card Series. This year looks promising for the team under second-year Skipper Oliver Marmol, even without Pujols and Molina.
Could the weather add that extra insight into how well the Cardinals perform on Opening Day? I sorted through over six decades’ worth of statistics to see if a pattern developed.
Do certain elements determine better winning outcomes for that first home game of the season? Could this set the precedent for a successful season?
I categorized the data starting with wins and losses, beginning with the year 1961 and ending in 2022.
Excluding all weather, the Cardinals have won 32 home opening games and lost 29 games since April 14, 1961, giving them a 52.46% winning percentage.
I looked up the archives for precipitation. The data does not tell me what time of day precipitation occurred, so I broke it down to dry and wet days.
I categorized dry days as no recorded precipitation and wet days as precipitation fell during any part of the day.
So how many of those game days were dry, and how many saw precipitation?
Out of those 32 games won, 19 wins occurred in dry weather, or 59%. This tells me that the Cardinals win their home opener slightly more often in dry weather.
How about temperatures? Over six decades, temperatures on Opening Day have ranged from the 40s to the 90s.
When the temperature is in the 40s, the Cardinals have a 60% win percentage for Opening Day. This dropped to 42.10% when the mercury climbed into the 50s, and in the 60s, it’s 46.67%.
As for 70 degrees and warmer, it’s over 50%, at 56.52%. The warmest opening day occurred in 2020, when Covid restrictions delayed the baseball season until July. On July 24, 2020, the mercury soared to 93 degrees and resulted in a win.
So, what does all of this tell us? This tells us, statistically, that at as far home openers go, the Cardinals do best when it’s cold (below 50 degrees) or really warm, above 90 degrees and no precipitation.
As for whether those winning home openers resulted in World Series championships?
Of the 61 years of data I used, the redbirds won 5 times–1964, 1967, 1982, 2006 and 2011–with 60% of those seasons getting a W for the home opener.
With temperatures forecasted in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds, weather-wise it's not all that favorable, given that the percentages sit around 46.67%. But, dry days do work in their favor.
Either way, the next seven months will be exciting. For more on what to expect on Opening Day.
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