The month of January in the St. Louis area ended on a frigid note, with high temperatures only in the lower 20s. How does February and the rest of winter look?
The most famous prognosticator, Punxsutawney Phil out of Punxsutawney, Pa., gives his prediction every Feb. 2 on Groundhog Day. However, given Phil’s dismal track record over the past century, I decided last year to see how my dog, Boomer, would do.
Last year he was 100% accurate at forecasting an early spring. Let’s see how he does this year.
In ancient times, celebrations occurred on Feb. 2 to mark the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox.
Germans had their own take on this holiday, using badgers and other small animals. If these animals saw their own shadows, declarations for more cold and snow for the rest of the season.
As German immigrants settled into parts of Pennsylvania, they brought this tradition with them. According to history.com, the first Groundhog Day celebration took place on Feb. 2, 1887, in Punxsutawney, Pa.
As the story goes, per stormfax.com, Clymer Freas, a local newspaper editor, invited a group of local business owners and groundhog hunters to take part. They would trek to now Gobbler’s Knob, and observe a groundhog for a shadow.
They would then relay this information to the public with the American tradition, stating: “If the sun shines on Groundhog Day; Half the Fuel and half the hay,” meaning if a shadow was cast, six more weeks of winter would prevail.
Part of the squirrel family, these animals have several names, as folklifetoday.com, part of the library of congress, shares, including: woodchuck, marmot, land beaver, whistler and whistler-pig.
Besides Phil, Staten Island Chuck also provides winter season predictions. Chuck lives at the Staten Island Zoo and began prognosticating in 1981 for the folks of New York City.
Phil’s accuracy isn’t anything to brag about, in fact, he’s only correct 39% of the time. Flipping a coin would yield better results. Whereas, Chuck boosted an accuracy rating of 82% over a 32-year span.
Boomer’s prediction for the end of winter 2022 proved accurate with no shadow observed and a warmer second half of winter followed. With one year under his belt, Boomer’s accuracy rating is 100%.
As for 2023, I woke Boomer at sunrise and took him outside. He glanced around, and a shadow was cast, indicating six more weeks of winter.
Here’s the video of Boomer’s prediction.
Phil, the groundhog, had a similar encounter and proclaimed six more weeks of winter. Staten Island Chuck, however, saw no shadow meaning an early spring for New York.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, February as a whole, looks warmer than average and the climate signal is showing warmer conditions for the middle part of the month. Whether that pattern will hold until the first day of spring, we’ll just have to wait and see.
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