The debate over whether presidential candidates can be excluded from state ballots will play out in Illinois ahead of a U.S. Supreme Court hearing next month. While objections to presidential candidates have happened before–Michael Bloomberg still ended up on the ballot, although he dropped out of the race before the primary, a spokesperson for the Illinois State Board of Elections tells Spectrum News it’s unusual to have four objections at one time and three against an incumbent.

The Board received three objections against President Joe Biden, one against former President Donald Trump and one against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. The Haley objection was later withdrawn.

On Wednesday, a hearing officer heard one of the Biden objections, while the remaining cases will be heard Friday in Chicago and Springfield. 

The hearing officers will forward their recommendations to the board’s general counsel, who will forward her recommendation to the board, which meets Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. to vote on a final decision in the cases.

Matt Dietrich, Public Information Officer for the Board of Elections told Spectrum News the panel usually, but not always follows the recommendation of the general counsel. 

The objections come as the nation’s highest court prepares to hear arguments in an appeal by Trump’s legal team after the Colorado Supreme Court and Maine’s Secretary of State pulled Trump off the states’ primary ballots due to the Constitution’s insurrection clause.

Jay Ashcroft, the Republican secretary of state in Missouri, has said he doesn’t want the ability to remove candidates from the ballot but has left open the possibility that without a standard, Biden could end up off the ballot in Missouri depending on the Court’s ruling in the Trump case.

The Supreme Court’s ruling could eventually render any decision announced Tuesday in Illinois moot. 

Either way, Dietrich said he expects the results of Tuesday’s decision to be challenged in Illinois courts.

The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 19.

April municipal elections in Missouri

An important deadline ahead of the April 2 election came and went this week as Jan. 23 was the last day to certify ballot language to be considered along with candidates for various cities, school boards and other municipal positions.

Voters within the Metropolitan Sewer District–the city of St. Louis and most of St. Louis County- have known since November that they’ll be asked to consider a 32% rate increase in April to fund the next 20 years of infrastructure projects or risk steeper increases.

Six cities in St. Louis County–Breckenridge Hills, Cool Valley, Fenton, Pagedale, Velda City and Winchester–are asking for voter approval of up to a 3% sales tax on recreational marijuana, joining dozens of Missouri cities who have done so since last April.

Voters in Webster Groves may spend more time at the polls than anyone else in the region, with a total of 11 ballot questions including a $22.1 million bond issue for recreational facility improvements and 10 amendments to the city’s charter. 

Crestwood is asking for voter approval of $33.3 million in general obligation bonds to build a new recreation center and other park-related improvements.

Maplewood would issue $6 million in bonds to address street and sidewalk improvements.

School districts from University City to Lindbergh are asking voters to sign off on bond projects for school improvements.

You can read the entire ballot content report for St. Louis County here.

November ballot question

St. Louis County Executive Sam Page confirmed this week that, pending a decision by the County Council voters in November will be asked to approve a property tax increase to address the status of the county headquarters building in Clayton. 

St. Louis County faces a Jan. 1 2028 deadline to come into compliance with building and fire codes in the city of Clayton. In addition to needing sprinkler system updates, the county’s headquarters, the Lawrence K. Roos administrative building also has issues with asbestos, water intrusion and structural concerns.

County officials have not decided whether they will renovate the building, lease new space, or build a new structure. That answer will impact the size of a property tax increase. The County Council has until Aug. 27 to decide to put the question to voters on the November ballot.

Polling 

A time-honored analysis of polling data has always come with the caveat that the results simply reflect a moment in time. A Remington Research Group poll released by Missouri Scout this week comes at a particularly volatile moment in time for state government and politics.

The poll, of more than 800 likely Republican primary voters, was taken Jan. 17 and 18, and asked participants who they would choose in the 2024 statewide races. The polling was done as the Missouri Senate was consumed last Thursday with a filibuster by members of the Missouri Freedom Caucus. Many of the key figures involved in what have become daily showdowns in the Senate have declared candidacies for statewide office.

In the governor’s race, the poll had Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft ahead at 34%, followed by Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe at 20% and State Sen. Bill Eigel at 4%. The poll showed 42% undecided.

In the race for lieutenant governor, State Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder leads at 18%, followed by former State Sen. Bob Onder at 12%, Franklin County Clerk Tim Baker at 9%, Paul Berry III at 5% and House Speaker Dean Plocher at 4% with 52% undecided.

In the secretary of state’s race, the poll showed 59% undecided, with State Sen. Denny Hoskins in the lead at 12%, Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden at 11%, Valentina Gomez at 7%, Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller at 6% and State Rep. Adam Schwadron at 5%.

In the race for state treasurer, Springfield attorney Lori Rook leads the field at 13%, followed by State Sen. Andrew Koenig at 12%, State Rep. Cody Smith at 9% with state treasurer Vivek Malek at 8% and 58% undecided.

In the race for attorney general, 59% are undecided as Andrew Bailey, looking to win election in his own right after being appointed to the post, leads former federal prosecutor and Greitens administration advisor Will Scharf by a 24%-17% margin.

What’s happened since this polling was done?

Rowden and GOP Senate leadership stripped Eigel, Hoskins, Koenig and State Sen. Rick Brattin of committee chairs and also kicked Hoskins out of committees in retaliation for tying up the chamber last week on top of what has been years-worth of tension building between Republican factions.

That tension escalated again Thursday, when Senate Majority Leader Cindy O’Laughlin said she’d support kicking Eigel out of the Chamber if she had the votes to do it, while acknowledging in an exchange with a heated Eigel on the Senate floor that she likely doesn’t have that support.

Both sides in the Senate have accused the other of taking actions for the purpose of propping up their campaigns.

It will be curious to see how and when the undecided numbers start to drop.

Polling, Part II

Former Illinois State Sen. Darren Bailey, challenging incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Bost in the state’s 15th congressional district, released polling this week that essentially makes the race a tossup. In sampling of 300 likely voters last week, Bailey had a lead of 48-44% with a margin of error of 5.66%. 

The same poll gave Bailey an 11 point margin in August. Bost has a host of institutional endorsements and support from lawmakers like former speaker Kevin McCarthy, current speaker Mike Johnson and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan.

Fellow Metro East U.S. Rep. Mary Miller has backed Bailey.

Both campaigns have played up their support of former President Donald Trump. Donald Trump, Jr. was a featured guest at a Bailey event last fall.

MO3 update

This week saw one key domino drop when it comes to seeing what the GOP field of candidates could look like in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer. State Sen. Travis Fitzwater, the Holts Summit Republican who represents a district that, like the congressional seat ranges from mid-Missouri all the way to the greater St. Louis metropolitan region, said he would stay out of the contest.

Onder, who lost a primary to Luetkemeyer in 2008, remains a serious contender for the race but has not announced his plans.

State Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, R-Arnold, told Spectrum News she’s raised $200,000 since declaring her candidacy. Brandon Wilkinson, of Cedar Hill, who ran against Luetkemeyer in 2022, also intends to run. 

MO1 update

U.S. Rep. Cori Bush, D-St. Louis, plans a public re-election kickoff Saturday in Northwoods in a race that at present would pit her against St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell. Speculation that State Sen. Brian Williams, D-University City could also enter the contest has died down. Williams has declined to comment on the possibility when asked in recent interviews and a message seeking comment Thursday has not been returned. 

Filing for the August 6 primary starts Feb. 27.

Circuit Attorney’s race

A Democratic primary for the St. Louis Circuit Attorney’s race lasted all of a few weeks before essentially ending this week.

David Mueller, a former public defender who announced his candidacy when Kim Gardner was still in office but remained in the race after Gov. Parson appointed Gabe Gore as her replacement. Gore has stabilized the office and on Dec. 6 announced he planned to seek election to the office in the August primary.

On Tuesday, Mueller said he didn’t have a path forward.

"I no longer see a path to winning. I am not independently wealthy. I will not continue to ask my supporters, friends, family and neighbors for money when I don’t see a path to use that money for a meaningful campaign.

Mueller said he remained concerned about laws that he said punish poverty.

“At its reimagined best, a Circuit Attorney’s Office can only reduce the harms of crime by focusing on victims and true accountability. At its worst, such an office uses the violence of prison as a weak replacement for accountability and drives future crime by increasing poverty. More “No Bond” recommendations and prosecutors seeking felony charges, rather than seeking diversion or misdemeanor charges, is a strategy to intensify inequity.”

Gore has received plaudits from Republicans for his efforts thus far, including House Speaker Dean Plocher and Parson, who highlighted him in this week’s State of the State address.

No Republicans have filed Missouri Ethics Commission paperwork signaling an intent to run for the office. Gardner still has an active MEC campaign committee but has not given indications she plans to run for the office again.