A new poll out this week shows almost three quarters of Illinois Democrats support the idea of Gov. J.B. Pritzker running for President at some point, but has him trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical primary in the event that President Joe Biden was not on the ballot.

Cor Strategies, a center-right firm, released the poll results Wednesday, showing 72% of Democrats favor the idea of a Pritzker run, with 13% opposed and 13% unsure. In a primary field that would not include Biden, Harris led the field at 28%, with Pritzker second at 14%, ahead of both Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia State Representative.

The poll shows Biden with a 75 point lead over Robert Kennedy, Jr. in the race for the Democratic nomination, and former President Donald Trump with a 62%-25% lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on the GOP side.

Biden would win the state in a general election matchup against both Trump and DeSantis, the poll said. 

A GOP field without Trump shows DeSantis with a 10 point margin over entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Missouri U.S. Senate Race

Lucas Kunce’s second campaign for the U.S. Senate held its first large-scale rally in the St. Louis region Monday night, as supporters gathered at a Machinists union hall in Bridgeton to hear from the Democrat running to challenge incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley in 2024.

Kunce, the first Democrat to announce the for the race in January, has endorsements from the Missouri AFL-CIO, the St. Louis Building and Construction Trades Council, and the Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters among others.

St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell and Missouri State Sen. Karla May are also in the Democratic primary.

But Kunce focused his full attention on Hawley, echoing many of the same economic themes he addressed in his 2022 Senate campaign. He spoke of families living on the edge of financial ruin as his own did when he was a child, and accused Hawley of supporting policies that have shipped jobs overseas. 

While Kunce spoke to organized labor issues during his remarks, the appeal that garnered the most applause came on ‌reproductive rights.

“I believe that a U.S. Senator’s job is to represent people, not tell them how to live. I believe a U.S. Senator’s job is to invest in us and pass legislation that gives us the opportunity to make our own decisions which is why as a U.S. Senator, I will be the deciding vote to codify Roe v. wade and protect reproductive rights for forever.”

Hawley is an anti-abortion conservative whose wife, Erin, has been involved as legal counsel for parties in the Dobbs case that overturned Roe v. Wade precedent, and other cases that have put limits on birth control.

St. Louis County Council Chair Shalonda Webb was one of the warm-up speakers at Monday’s event. Webb talked about how her work as an engineer for Boeing’s defense products manufactured in St. Louis, as an engineer, aligned her with Kunce, the former Marine.

Webb has recused herself from votes connected to Boeing’s request for tax breaks as part of an expansion near St. Louis Lambert International Airport. The company wants $155 million in property tax abatement as part of an expansion project worth nearly $2B. 

The company hasn’t released specifics on what it plans to do with the expansion, other than to say Boeing is competing for the next-generation of programs requested by the Pentagon.

“I think that’s an issue for the county to figure out for themselves, but I can tell you right now I don’t think that corporations should be able to leverage their ability to move somewhere else or you know different towns and counties against one another I think that’s a problem that needs to be fixed at the federal level,” Kunce said. It turns into a race to the bottom and we all end up losing when that happens.”

Endorsement Alert: Bell announced the endorsement of former Missouri Gov. Bob Holden and his wife, Lori Hauser Holden for his Senate bid this week. Kunce has the backing of former Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell. Both men served a single term between 2000 and 2004.

Earnings Tax

While lawmakers return to Jefferson City for the annual veto session Sept. 13, work is already underway to get ready for the regular session, starting in January. 

This week, House Speaker Dean Plocher announced an interim committee on the Earnings Tax. People who live and work in St. Louis and Kansas City pay a one percent tax on salaries and other compensation. In St. Louis, voters have consistently supported the tax, despite concerted efforts to remove it over the years, most recently spearheaded by billionaire financier Rex Sinquefield. The tax accounts for 36 percent of the city’s general revenue.

“As costs rise and more Missourians are facing financial difficulties, it’s more important than ever to look at the data and have a meaningful discussion about these taxes, and see just how they are affecting Missourians as well as employment and economic growth in our state,” Plocher said in a statement announcing the panel. “The Missouri House has made a commitment to ensure that the overall tax burden on our citizens does not force families into making tough decisions, and I know that this committee will put in the work to find out the best way to ensure that our taxes are low, fair, and effective.”

Here’s the committee: Rep. Jim Murphy, R-St. Louis County (Chair), Rep. Ben Baker, R-Neosho (Vice Chair), Rep. Ben Keathley R-Chesterfield, Rep. Wendy Hausman, R-St. Peters, Rep. Tony Lovasco, R-O’Fallon, Rep. Mike McGirl, R-Potosi, Rep. Marlon Anderson D-St. Louis, Rep. Steve Butz D-St. Louis, and Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern, D-Kansas City.

Lt. Governor’s race

The race for Lieutenant Governor is growing on both sides as we head into 2024. All signs point to Plocher rolling out a formal campaign later this fall, after he first signaled his intentions late last winter.

This week, Franklin County Clerk Tim Baker announced he would also run in the Republican primary, seeking statewide office after five years serving at the county level.

Baker did not address any campaign platform as part of the announcement, instead appealing to a sense of going “back to basics.”

“This announcement is only the beginning of a grueling journey through the primary election and to the general election in November of 2024,” Baker said in a brief campaign video. “I am prepared for the hard work and dedication earning this seat will take.”

State Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder has already declared her candidacy for the race. Her campaign is promoting an October fundraiser featuring U.S. Rep. Mark Alford, R-Kansas City.

On the Democratic side, State Rep. Richard Brown, the Assistant Minority Floor Leader was the first to file Missouri Ethics Commission paperwork for the race, and was joined Aug. 2 by Anastasia Syes, of St. Louis.