The St. Louis area, and parts of the upper Midwest and South, are at risk of not having enough electricity during extreme cold this winter, according to the organization responsible for the reliability and security of the country’s power grid. 

Thursday, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released its Winter Reliability Assessment stating a large portion of the United States is at risk of not having enough electricity during peak winter conditions.

The assessment says the risk is due to higher peak demand projections, inadequate generator weatherization, fuel supply risks and natural gas infrastructure. 

Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is the grid that covers part of eastern Missouri and western Illinois. 

Winter Reliability Assessment Map (Courtesy: North American Electric Reliability Corp.)

NERC says the reserve margins in MISO have fallen by more than 5% since last winter due to the retirement of coal and nuclear plants. The WRA report says an extreme cold-weather event that extends deep into MISO’s area could lead to an impact on generation and fuel. 

However, MISO expects to maintain reliability, according to the report. It also says “load shedding”, when the delivery of electricity is temporarily interrupted to maintain the integrity of the grid, is unlikely but may be needed under wider-area cold weather events.

The assessment also points out that parts of Texas and the South are at risk for significant forced outages in extreme and prolonged cold temperatures in areas where generators and fuel supply infrastructure are not designed or retrofitted for such conditions.

Also, parts of North Carolina and South Carolina are at risk in extreme cold due to shrinking capacity and demand growth. This area is also witnessing a lower stock of coal due to supply and transportation issues.