ST. LOUIS–Do endorsements matter in political campaigns? The answer is complicated.
“Endorsements can make a difference primarily at the edges, and in very close races,” according to Costas Panagopoulos, head of Northeastern’s political science department and editor of American Politics Research. “Generally speaking, however, there are more fundamental variables affecting election outcomes than endorsements.”
Panagopoulos says endorsements can be effective during the primaries if the endorser has a loyal following, like former President Donald Trump’s.
One of the biggest questions in Missouri’s closely watched U.S. Senate race has long been if Trump would endorse anyone, and at this late date ahead of Tuesday’s primary, if it will make a difference.
Trump has already said he won’t endorse U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, leading most to assume that it boils down to a choice between former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Greitens has slipped in recent public polling behind Schmitt and Hartzler, under the weight of a heavy ad blitz by SuperPACs highlighting the allegations of domestic abuse against Greitens. Greitens has denied the allegations. Does Trump jump in this late to back Greitens, and risk having him come up short, or does he go for Schmitt, a move that could be seen as king-making if he wins? The other timing question surrounds a diminishing window of opportunity for an in-person appearance at a rally, which can take days to put together for planning and security.
Over on the Democratic side of the race, an endorsement came Wednesday that soon after required an explanation. St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones announced she was backing Trudy Busch Valentine.
"I’m excited to share that after having several conversations and doing my own research, not only am I voting for Trudy but I’m asking the voters to do the same.” said Mayor Tishaura Jones. “Let’s do something different and send a nurse with tenacity and grit to the U.S. Senate.” A spokesperson for Jones’ political team said the issues of healthcare and reproductive rights, gun violence and the opioid crisis were the issues which impacted her decision.
But not long after, Jones issued a statement distancing herself from Busch Valentine’s position on the issue of transgender care. The candidate has said children should not receive medical treatment that would be irreversible until they turn 18.
“I don’t condone the words she used about the LGBT+ community, however, I think this is a learning experience for all of us. Trudy and I aren’t exactly at the same place on trans rights but here’s what I know. She believes kids should have gender affirming care and that permanent procedures should happen once they are adults. I am more liberal and support trans children in being their authentic selves," Jones said.
"I will commit having the hard conversations and bringing my experience to the table to work with her to become a better ally. The learning curve to be a better ally than our former elected officials is a steep one. At her core I believe that Trudy gives a damn about people and that’s something that can’t be taught. I’m sorry if I hurt any of my friends in the LGBT+ community. You know my heart and I wouldn’t intentionally do anything to hurt you.”
Lucas Kunce, one of Busch Valentine’s main opponents in the primary, seized on the news.
“I don’t think she believes youth should get gender-affirming care and…I believe that’s dangerous to neglect a third of our trans youth who are at risk of losing this care.”
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St. Louis County has certainly been exposed to the ad wars in the U.S. Senate race, but at least when it comes to planned campaign events on the Republican side, there hasn’t been much in the way of in-person activity.
Why? It could be because Hartzler and Billy Long, two U.S. House members from central and southwest Missouri, have ceded the county to Schmitt, who in addition to having statewide name recognition, was born and raised in the county before serving as a State Senator here.
Schmitt’s largest event in the region to date was in neighboring St. Charles County last weekend, part of a three stop swing featuring U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
Hartzler, who along with Schmitt appears to be pulling away from former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens in the latest round of publing polling, made St. Louis County inroads Wednesday night, with a meet and greet with roughly 50 supporters Wednesday night in Chesterfield, driving home a conservative pro-life message. Her previous stops in the region within the last month were in Troy and Lake St. Louis.
“I feel like I’m in the lead….I’m out there fighting for our values, leading, and people understand that, I’m the only one in this race with a track record of fighting for their values and getting things done in Washington, who’s been a lifelong conservative because both Schmitt and Greitens have not been conservative their whole life,” she said.
Hartzler’s campaign expects to fly around the state, including one more St. Louis-area stop on Monday. Schmitt will be in Fenton Monday night. Greitens plans a St. Charles County event Saturday.