With less than three weeks to go in the presidential campaign, Maine has yet to see either of the major party candidates in person.

Political scientists and partisan consultants say that’s not likely to change.

“Pennsylvania and Georgia are taking so much air out of the room for everybody else,” said Jim Melcher, political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington.

With far more electoral votes, swing states like Pennsylvania (19) and Georgia (16) seem like better bets with an election that’s likely to be very close.

And while Maine has four electoral votes, it’s all but certain Vice-President Kamala Harris will win three of them, so in essence, Maine is down to one potentially competitive electoral vote — the 2nd Congressional District.

Former President Donald Trump has won that district in the last two election cycles, 2016 and 2020. Trump visited Maine five times in 2016 and three times in 2020.

In the run-up to the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton visited Maine only once and in 2020, President Joe Biden did not visit at all. In his capacity as president, Biden did visit Maine in July 2023 to promote his economic policies and again in November 2023, following the mass shootings in Lewiston.

Garrett Mason, a former Republican lawmaker and partner in Dirigo Public Affairs, said Trump’s winning track record in the 2nd District is a signal to both campaigns that their money is better spent elsewhere.

“Both campaigns looked at the dollars in the 2nd District and said we could dump it into a state where we can get a lot more votes,” he said.

The Harris campaign has sent surrogates this cycle, including Harris’ husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff and Gwen Walz, wife of vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz.

Gwen Walz is scheduled to return to Maine on Tuesday for a speech about reproductive rights, according to the campaign.

On the Republican side, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whately visited the state in September as part of the “Protect the Vote” tour.

Mark Brewer, chairman of the political science department at the University of Maine at Orono, said it’s likely that internal polls conducted by both campaigns aren’t showing a close race in the 2nd District — at least when it comes to the presidential contest.

“I’m guessing (the Harris campaign) doesn’t think they can win it and on the Trump side, they don’t think they can lose it,” he said.

And while Melcher, Mason and Brewer don’t see a likely visit by Harris or Trump in the next few weeks, one Democrat is not as certain.

Democratic strategist David Farmer said he won’t rule out a top tier visit by either campaign, particularly if some of the swing states start to break in a decisive way.

“I would say that the last two-and-a-half weeks of a presidential campaign is unpredictable,” he said. “As we get closer to the election, the electoral map will narrow.”

He’s also not convinced that Trump will win the 2nd District, saying that things have changed since he last won that single electoral vote four years ago.

Farmer said redistricting changed the map somewhat, it’s the first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and that a significant percentage of Republicans backed Nikki Haley in the primary.

Also, Trump’s “strange dance party” during a town hall in Philadelphia on Monday might give some voters pause, Farmer said.

“Trump is a much-diminished candidate from 2016 and 2020,” Farmer said. “It’s undeniable he’s not the same person. If there was anybody on the edge trying to decide, those types of episodes don’t work in his favor.”

Lastly, Farmer said Democrats have 14 field offices in the 2nd Congressional District, an indication that the party is not willing to concede the district to Trump.

Another wrinkle this election cycle is that U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (D-2nd District) has not endorsed Harris for president, making it unlikely that he would want to campaign alongside her if she were to come to the 2nd District, Melcher and Brewer said.

Melcher said if the Democrats send any candidate to the 2nd District, it’s most likely to be Tim Walz, who has handled campaign duties in rural areas for the Harris-Walz campaign.

On the other side, 2nd District challenger state Rep. Austin Theriault, a Republican endorsed by Trump, would likely welcome a boost from the top of the ticket — or any high-profile surrogate.

Brewer said it’s not out of the realm of possibility that vice-presidential candidate JD Vance or tech billionaire Elon Musk could show up to stump for Trump.

“If you’re Jared Golden, you probably don’t want Harris or a high-profile Harris surrogate here,” Brewer said.

For Theriault, a visit by Trump, Musk or Vance won’t help sway those who are still undecided, but could help “stoke the base a little bit.”