Scientists at the MaineHealth Institute for Research in Scarborough cannot say for sure whether Maine will see an increase in cases of Lyme disease this summer, but they know one thing for sure: Warmer weather is more of a factor now.

“It is certainly a climate-affected issue,” said Chuck Lubelczyk, a vector ecologist at the lab.

During an open house at the lab on Thursday, experts like Lubelczyk weighed in on what Mainers can expect this year regarding ticks and the diseases they carry, most notably Lyme disease.

Lubelczyk said deer ticks are most active when there is no snow on the ground, and there is a consistent daily average temperature greater than 40 degrees. The past winter’s milder weather is leading to a bigger window, especially this year, when deer ticks potentially carrying the disease will be active, he said.

“It was a fairly early season,” he said. “They didn’t have much of a winter.”

Lubelczyk said MaineHealth works with the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention on tick surveillance and study. He and other researchers collect ticks in wooded areas to study local populations and risk of disease for humans and domesticated animals. 

(Above: Rebecca Robich, a public health entomologist at the MaineHealth Institute for Research, studies a deer tick at the institute's lab in Scarborough. She is working to determine the impacts of temperature, moisture and other factors on the ticks. (Spectrum News/Sean Murphy)

The traditional tick season begins at the end of March or beginning of April, but this year Lubelczyk said it started a month early, and likely will last far longer than usual.

“At one time, we could reasonably expect the tick season to stop around Veterans Day, Thanksgiving,” he said. “Not anymore. I mean honestly, we get them and we see them all the way through Christmas in a given year now.”

Researchers are also finding ticks in areas of the state once thought too far north for ticks, places like Fort Kent, Houlton and Presque Isle.

“They are starting to see them encroaching to Aroostook County,” Lubelczyk said.

But the increased prevalence of ticks does not necessarily mean the state will suddenly be inundated with Lyme disease, according to the lab’s director, Dr. Robert Smith.

“I actually think Lyme disease is in more of a steady state in Maine now,” he said.

Scientists first detected the disease in the Pine Tree State back in the 1980s. Both here and nationwide, Smith said, the number of cases of the disease in humans has had enough time to plateau.

“You usually reach some kind of equilibrium, and we’re seeing that nationally with Lyme disease in areas where it’s already been established,” he said. “I actually think we’re in that phase in Maine.”

Right now, Smith said, Maine has about 2,000 cases of Lyme disease reported annually, and he said he doubts that number will climb.

“My guess is that’s pretty much the upper end of what we can expect for Lyme disease,” he said.

Lubelczyk said despite the changing length of the typical deer tick season, there are still plenty of variables, namely rainfall. Ticks need moisture, he said, and last summer the state experienced a drought situation. If that happens again this year, he said, that will cut down on tick populations, actually reducing the risk of infection.

“It’s very difficult, because these things are so weather-dependent, it’s hard to predict from year to year how it’s going to be,” he said.

Smith said typical advice for protecting against the disease still holds. For people venturing outside, know the risk areas, such as deep brush in the woods, where ticks can grab onto clothing and skin. 

Smith suggested wearing insect repellant and treating clothing with repellant as well. Smith also recommended using permethrin, a repellant available in stores, to treat clothing.

After being outside, Smith said, it’s a good idea to remove clothes, check skin for ticks and take a shower.

Symptoms of the disease include a circular rash. Contrary to popular opinion, Smith said, it doesn’t have to have the “bullseye” pattern most often associated with the disease. It could simply be a simple red circle. 

Anyone with this rash who experiences aches and a low-grade fever should definitely contact a health care provider, Smith said. In most cases, the disease can be treated with antibiotics over a 10 to 14-day period. Only 10% of patients who get treatment experience lingering symptoms, and the disease is almost never fatal, only with rare complications related to the heart.