To become governor, you need enough money to be competitive, but not so much that you can’t spend it all by Election Day.

With two well-known, longtime politicians on Maine’s ballot — and one unknown longshot — the money race is important, political pundits say, but it’s not likely to be the deciding factor in the race.

With five weeks to go until the Nov. 8 election, incumbent Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, leads in the money race with $4.85 million. Former two-term Gov. Paul LePage, a Republican, has raised $2.24 million.

And that doesn’t even count the more than $8 million spent by outside groups to influence the election — so far.

Which begs the question. How much is enough?

“It is generally understood that more campaign money is a strong predictor of electoral success, but in today’s politically charged and polarized environment, the nominees of each party — especially if well-known, as LePage is — can count on a fairly high floor of support,” Michael Franz, a Bowdoin College government and legal studies professor, said.

He expects LePage to “get well north of 40%” in the election, regardless of fundraising. But Franz added that one caveat is that LePage would benefit from more funding to counter the ads from Mills and her supporters.

Many of those ads have focused on one of the major themes that Democrats believe will bring out their base and draw in some independents — abortion, said Ron Schmidt, chair of the political science department at the University of Southern Maine.

On the other side, Republican-backed ads are focusing on crime and inflation, issues that will drive LePage supporters to the polls, he said. 

“Having more money doesn’t necessarily suggest victory,” Schmidt said. “I think money from this point on is going to be spent getting people to the polls.”

A recent example that money isn’t enough to win an election comes from the 2020 race for the U.S. Senate, said Doug Rooks, a journalist who has covered Maine government and politics for more than 30 years.

Democrats at the national level thought they could unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who voted to seat Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, by pumping millions of dollars into the state.

But it wasn’t enough to propel Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, a Democrat, into office. 

“You have to have enough,” Rooks said. “But it’s not sufficient to have money.”

Gideon lost by 9 percentage points and spent months doling out more than $10 million in leftover campaign funds to charities and fellow Democrats running for office. Gideon, Collins and outside groups put more than $200 million into the race.

At the state level, there is a third candidate running for governor who has taken an anti-fundraising approach to the job. Beals physician Sam Hunkler doesn’t want donations and has pledged to spend only about $5,000 of his own money on the campaign.

“Money corrupts,” he said during a recent interview with Spectrum News. “Nobody in that position should be beholden to special interests. Then we don’t have a government of the people.”

In 2018, Mills raised about $3 million compared to Republican Shawn Moody, who reported about $1.8 million, according to campaign finance reports. Mills won the race with 51% of the vote to become the state’s first woman governor.

Four years prior, LePage spent the least of any candidate — about $1.9 million — as he garnered 48% of the vote in defeating Democrat Mike Michaud and independent Eliot Cutler. Michaud and Cutler each spent about $3 million, according to the Associated Press.

As the 2022 money picture becomes clearer in the coming weeks — a new batch of campaign finance reports from political action committees are due by midnight Wednesday — it will be up to voters to sift through the television ads, mailers, signs and Facebook posts to make a decision.

Schmidt doesn’t think campaigns will make any special effort to reach those who are undecided, relying instead on what they think are the hot button issues that will draw voters to the polls.

“My guess is that both of them are going to invest in issue driven ads in hopes of reaching independents,” he said.