The 2024 central Pacific hurricane season begins on Saturday, June 1, and NOAA released its annual outlook. NOAA predicts below normal activity across the central Pacific basin this year.

What You Need To Know

  • NOAA predicts below normal tropical activity in the central Pacific

  • La Niña conditions are expected during the peak of hurricane season

  • The forecast doesn't predict landfalls, just overall activity

NOAA’s outlook predicts a 50% chance of a below normal season, a 30% chance of a near normal season and a 20% chance of an above normal season. 

NOAA calls for 1 to 4 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific hurricane basin. A normal season has about 4 or 5 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

Remember, predictions of the season’s activity are not predictions of exactly how many storms will make landfall in a particular place. Individual storms make impacts, regardless of how active (or not) a season is.

There is a new list of names this year for hurricane season. The eastern and central Pacific share the same list of names.

You can learn more about 2024's list of names here.

Researchers look at a variety of factors to make their prediction.

Current El Niño conditions are forecast to transition to La Niña conditions later this summer or fall, leading to unfavorable conditions for tropical development in the Pacific basin.

La Niña conditions typically favor less hurricane activity in the Pacific because of stronger vertical wind shear, making it harder for storms to develop.

Learn More About Hurricanes

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