Every fall, people travel far and wide to go ‘leaf-peeping.’ The goal is to catch the leaves at peak color to see all the vibrant reds, oranges and yellows that Mother Nature has to offer. Weather plays a primary role in knowing when and where to go.
So what should you expect this year?
The first step of successful leaf-peeping is being at the right place at the right time. All other factors aside, this is the average time of the year around the U.S. that you can see peak fall colors according to Explore Fall.
Aside from the Florida peninsula, the Gulf Coast and parts of the desert Southwest, most of the continental U.S. sees color change during fall.
The weather determines whether the fall foliage comes out early, on time or late every year, but what role does it play?
Heat and moisture are the biggest factors that influence fall foliage. The summer weather helps give an idea of when colors will pop, but the weather during September and October are the biggest influencers.
Here is how soil moisture and air temperature affect fall foliage.
A prolonged late-spring or severe summer drought that leads to dry soils in the fall not only affects the timing, but the quality of the colors. Drought and drier soil puts a higher stress on the trees, dulling down the colors and forcing them to lose their leaves sooner.
Heavy rainfall and wet soils in the summer and fall can delay the colors’ arrival by a few days, or even weeks. The later arrival time can produce better fall colors.
Colder and below-normal temperatures bring out fall colors early, while prolonged summer heat and above normal temperatures delay the colors.
According to the USDA Forest Service, “a succession of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp but not freezing nights seems to bring about the most spectacular color displays.” In other words… typical fall weather.
Fall colors are already starting to pop across some parts of the country, most notably in the Rockies and interior New England, where there are extensive areas of moderate and low color.
For a lot of these spots, it’s right on time. When can the rest of the country expect to see color? Tree stress gives us a good idea if foliage will come out early, on time or late.
It takes those earlier factors into account - soil moisture and temperatures. Low stress areas are where the foliage is most likely to be on time.
High stress areas around Ohio, West Virginia and the Appalachians are also under extreme to exceptional drought. That could cause those areas to lose leaves early and mute some of the vibrant colors.
Drought, along with the combination of above normal summer temperatures, are also leading to highly stressed trees in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.
Areas with low stress, like parts of New England and the Rockies where fall colors are already coming out, are more likely to see vibrant colors and foliage showing up right on time.
You can check on Explore Fall for a current fall foliage map and forecast updated daily.
Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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