WASHINGTON — With Election Day in just four weeks, some polls show a tightening race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Colin Allred. Allred’s campaign says it is encouraged, but can the Dallas congressman achieve what no other Texas Democrat has in 30 years?

What You Need To Know

  • With less than a month before the November election, the Cook Political Report shifted Texas’s Senate race between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Colin Allred from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” 

  • Allred's campaign points to the tightening polls, raising more than $30 million over the last three months, and Senate Democrats' campaign arm spending millions of dollars in TV ads in the race to show that it has momentum 

  • But political analysts note that Cruz still had the edge. Texas' long Republican history likely means that the state will go to former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket 

  • Cruz has worked to move to the center this year, stressing bipartisanship, and his campaign announced it raised more than $21 million in the third quarter

In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz said he was not going to underestimate a Democratic challenge. 

“People say all the time, ‘Oh, come on, it’s a Texas reelect. How could you possibly lose?’” Cruz said on Aug. 4, 2018. “The far left is filled with anger and rage, and we underestimate that anger at our peril.” 

After defeating former congressman Beto O’Rourke by 2.6 percentage points, Cruz appears to be taking a similar approach as he faces Allred.   

“He’s been running harder, more aggressively from the outset than he did six years ago, because he realizes that while he has an advantage, this is certainly a race that he could lose,” said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. 

In 2018, Allred flipped a long-held Republican seat. Today in his Senate run, Allred touts a bipartisan coalition that includes progressives like Rep. Alexandri Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, and Republicans such as former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming. 

On Tuesday, Allred’s campaign announced it brought in more than $30 million over the last three months. His campaign said it has raised more than $68.7 million to date. Allred’s campaign manager said the congressman has “clear momentum,” adding “Ted Cruz is weaker and more vulnerable than ever.” 

Little more than a month before the November election, the Cook Political Report shifted Texas’s Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” 

“I do think that there’s a few things that Cruz is uniquely weak on this time that he wasn’t in 2018: primarily abortion, where Texas has one of the, you know, most restrictive laws in the country, and then his, you know, 2021 trip to Cancun while the state was facing widespread power outages after a winter storm,” said Jessica Taylor, senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. “I think that Democrats also got a very good recruit in Colin Allred, who’s been able to fundraise and keep pace.”

In an effort to maintain their majority, Senate Democrats are going on the offensive. Its campaign arm announced that they will spend millions of dollars on television advertisements in Texas to try and defeat Cruz. 

“We’re finding his unfavorabilities now are even higher than they were. Then we have a very strong candidate in Colin Allred, who polls strong and, as he gets to be known, he wins. It’s just a matter of getting folks to know Colin Allred better,” said Sen. Gary Peters, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 

But political analysts note that Cruz still had the edge. The two-term Republican has worked to move to the center this year, stressing bipartisanship. That includes his work to secure the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration and the expansion of international bridges in South Texas connecting the U.S. to Mexico. Cruz also launched a “Democrats for Cruz” coalition. 

Taylor said, looking at the Republican history of Texas, she believes it will ultimately go Republican at the presidential level, which makes it an uphill battle for Allred. 

“In Texas, you can get within 3 points,” Taylor said. “But those last few points are just Herculean, and so we’ve seen close polls, but I think when we look at just the overall lean of the state and the fact that it’s highly favored to go to Trump in the presidential election, I think that number of crossover voters is just very hard for Allred to ultimately get.”

Former President Donald Trump won Texas in 2020 with just over 52% of the vote, compared to President Joe Biden’s 46%. This election, Trump consistently polls ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas. 

“Since 2016 we’ve only seen one Senate race that’s broken differently than the presidential result. That was Maine in 2020,” Taylor said. 

On Monday, Cruz’s campaign announced he’s raised more than $21 million in the third quarter and has $16.2 million cash on hand. 

“At the final stretch of the campaign, enthusiasm for Senator Cruz is tangible in every corner of the Lone Star State. Texans know what is at stake. The future of our state and nation is on the line and supporters are geared up and ready to reelect Senator Cruz and keep Texas, Texas. Senator Cruz will crisscross the state meeting and rallying with supporters to turn out the vote and ensure victory in November.” Cruz’s campaign spokesperson said.