September is a month synonymous with football, the state fair, and maybe the idea of a Pumpkin Spice Latte. Yum! Personally, I start thinking of cold fronts. And as I write this blog, we actually have one in the forecast. So it begs the question, is this like a real cold front or nah? Like, am I going to get to wear a hoodie and a great big smile that the sweltering Texas heat is finally put to bed for the year?

Umm, not exactly. However, 'tis the season for strong cold fronts and the first one, on average, is just over two weeks away.

What You Need To Know

  • A weak cold front is on the way for Texas Sunday into Monday

  • Only a slight cool down is expected for North Texas with refreshing morning lows

  • Our first strong cold front, which I define by knocking our lows into the 50s, is still a few weeks away

So what exactly do you consider a strong cold front?

Personally, it’s a cold front that knocks our overnight lows into the 50s with our highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. That’s a good start.

What's the average date for our first strong cold front, then?

Well, the farther north you are, the earlier it is. Go figure. For Amarillo, their first big cool down is this weekend! They’ll only have highs in the mid-70s on Sunday. For Dallas, the first 50s is Sept. 22. Austin: Sept. 27. San Antonio: Sept. 25. Houston: Sept. 29. Corpus Christi: Oct. 7. El Paso: Sept. 21. Laredo: Oct. 7.

So, the cold front this weekend is a big fat zippo?

Pretty much. It won’t be completely useless. What it will do is reinforce the dry air that’s already entrenched over Texas, which will keep the sunny skies in our forecast all of next week and make the mornings feel decently comfortable.

Will the cold front bring rain?

Well, you should water then because unfortunately, the dry air that is already in place is just that: dry. There is very little available moisture for this front to lift into the atmosphere to form clouds and rain. We've seen a massive reduction in the severity of the drought over the last few weeks but we still need more water and it looks like we'll be waiting another 7 to 10 days for that chance, at least for areas north of I-10.

Why is it called that if it's not going to get cold?

Well, all a cold front is, is the demarcation between two different air masses. A cold front more times than not does mark the edge of a cooler air mass. It can also mark a wind shift where the winds switch from south to north and that north wind in Texas is a dry wind for the state. Dry air, especially in the mornings, can make it feel “cooler” even if the temperatures don’t respond.

Any hope?

Okay, here goes. First, it is absolutely going to cool down. It's not a matter of if but when, and summer is on borrowed time. Two: The sun angle is getting low and the amount of insolation we receive from the sun (incoming solar radiation) is getting weaker and weaker by the day. We've already seen our high temps across the state struggling to make the mid 90s in summer that was overloaded with hundreds.

The tilt of the Earth and the fact that the Northern Hemisphere is slowly tilting away from the sun means that even without a cold front, it'll become more and more difficult to achieve those blistering hot temps that we've grown accustomed to over the past few months.

So you don't need faith. A big cool down is coming, much sooner than later. What you do need is patience. Just give me another two or three weeks. I'm doing all I can to coax Mother Nature into giving us some relief. 

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