The forecast continues to look wet across the southern half of Texas for the next three days before we get a break. A good deal of the rain ahead will come from a tropical "entity" in the Gulf of Mexico. Look for a few hit-or-miss showers & storms out there today -- 50% chance -- with highs in the mid to upper 80s, then we'll ramp up to a 70% rain/storm chance tomorrow and Saturday.
Experts at NOAA continue to give the Gulf storm a 60% chance for development into a TROPICAL DEPRESSION yet, no matter what we call it, it's going to be a rainmaker for the Lone Star State...and at a time when our soil and waterways might not be able to handle much without running over.
The flash flood threat looks greatest mostly south and west of the San Antonio metro area. And here's why: we expect the "entity" -- which is basically an open wave of low pressure -- to move up towards the Lower Texas Coast tomorrow then move basically up the Rio Grande.
Several models continue to show the system moving further south, into Mexico, as opposed to Texas. If that happens, we'll end up with less rain.
The worst-case scenario would involve this system slowing down or even stalling southwest of Austin, where it could churn out several days of rainfall. For now, we don't think that'll happen. NOAA's forecast calls for widespread 2" to 3" totals here in the CapCity with some potential 4" to 8" readings south and west.
Be sure to join us for 'Weather on the 1s' for a look at the latest models and the condition of HURRICANE FLORENCE. We'll be on TV every 10 minutes or you can watch via the live stream.