Earlier this year, both the Republican and Democratic campaign committees responsible for expanding their respective cohorts in the House of Representatives published lists of incumbent members of the opposing party they aspire to beat in 2024.
Halfway through the year, Democratic and GOP candidates in these 68 key districts — both the ones each party targeted and the ones they are defending — have brought in virtually identical fundraising hauls: just above $51 million, according to a Spectrum News analysis of campaign finance reports filed last week.
But from a fundraising standpoint, House Republicans are better positioned to defend their territory than their Democratic counterparts are, the reports show.
Across the 31 districts held by Republicans, incumbents have raised an average of $1.1 million and have an average of $964,000 in cash on hand. Democratic incumbents defending 35 seats raised an average of $826,000 this year and their balance at the end of the second quarter averaged out at $700,000 and change.
Defending a slim majority in the House, Republicans in all 68 districts had a total of $3 million more in the bank than Democrats as of June 30 and incumbents had around $37 million in cash overall. That’s more than three times the $11.4 million held by their Democratic challengers.
Democratic incumbents had $26 million in their coffers, over five times as much cash as the $4.5 million their Republican rivals have.
Led by North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, the National Republican Congressional Committee targeted 37 Democratic-controlled districts in March.
A few weeks later, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee revealed a target list of their own: 31 “vulnerable Republicans” and two Democratic districts whose incumbents opted to pursue Senate seats.
Despite eyeing four fewer races, Democratic campaigns in their target districts have raised over $19 million, more than twice the $7.5 million raised by Republican campaigns in the 37 districts they labeled “offensive pick-up opportunities.”
“The vulnerable Republicans represented on this list have worked hand in hand with Speaker McCarthy to enable the most dangerous wings of their party,” Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, the DCCC chair, said in a statement announcing the target list in April.
“We will grow our House majority by building strong campaigns around talented recruits in these districts who can communicate the dangers of Democrats’ extreme agenda,” Hudson, the NRCC chair, said in a statement of his own in March. “These House Democrats should be shaking in their boots.”
It’s still early in the cycle, with over a year to go until the 2024 elections, but both parties are gearing up for a slugfest in a contentious presidential election year.
According to the Federal Election Commission, Republican candidates have already raised nearly $178 million across all House races and Democrats have raised $156 million. In the 2020 and 2022 cycles, both parties’ candidates raised roughly $1 billion each cycle. And that doesn’t count money raised by outside political action committees and each party’s congressional campaign committees.
The latest federal campaign finance records show the DCCC raised over $67 million this year and had $35 million in the bank as of June 30 to help boost their efforts to retake the House. The NRCC raised just under a million more, but had $3.4 million less to work with heading into the summer and fall.
“This fundraising period makes clear we are on our path to the majority,” DelBene said in a statement announcing the haul, praising New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, House Democrats’ leader and their likely pick to be Speaker of the House if they regain control.
“Voters are tired of House Republicans’ obsession with pushing a dangerous MAGA agenda, and the DCCC will continue our work to hold them accountable for their extremism,” DelBene added, previewing a campaign message that includes attacks on Republicans’ abortion policies and the “continued chaos and discord in Congress.”
Through the first six months of 2019, the last year prior to a presidential election, the DCCC had raised nearly $62 million. But in the same period in 2021, when the focus was on congressional races as opposed to a Democratic presidential primary, they brought in $70 million.
The NRCC raised almost $45 million at this point in 2019 and $79 million in 2021.
Outside of NRCC, DCCC and individual candidates’ campaigns, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political action fund has raised $62.5 million this year, he announced earlier this month. His campaign said he gave $8.3 million of that to Republican incumbents and another $17.6 million went into NRCC coffers.
Jeffries, McCarthy’s Democratic counterpart, said he raised a total of $62.4 million for Democratic candidates, though his team reportedly calculates their totals differently than McCarthy and campaign finance filings for Jeffries’ fund were not immediately available.
Outside groups aligned with both parties have also raised tens of millions with plans to pour their war chests into decisive races. The Jeffries-aligned House Majority PAC told The Washington Post it raised $26 million this year.
And a spokesperson for the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund said earlier this month they raised $35 million in concert with the nonprofit American Action Network.
Because it’s still early, some of the races in these key districts either lack serious challengers or have several, meaning the party out of power can’t consolidate its fundraising behind one campaign. In New York, scandal-plagued Rep. George Santos has five Democratic challengers and one Republican challenger. Three of the Democrats have already raised over $400,000 to the $138,000 raised by Santos, who lost much of his party’s support after being arrested on federal charges in May.
Throughout New York, including Santos’ district on Long Island and in a sliver of Queens, Democrats have their eyes on winning back seats in four districts held by freshman Republicans, but that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. They also are targeting two districts won by then-President Donald Trump that they view as viable races for the right candidate.
Flipping those districts will go a long way for Democrats as they seek to overcome the House GOP’s ten-seat majority. Defending them could mean the difference for Republicans in deep-blue New York where turnout will assuredly be higher than it was in 2022 as voters head to the polls to vote for president.
Jeffries, who is partnering with New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Gov. Kathy Hochul to coordinate electoral efforts in his home state, told Spectrum News earlier this month the battle in New York is a “all hands on deck moment.”
In February, Jeffries’ House Majority PAC pledged to spend $45 million in New York alone.
In the six New York races, Republican incumbents have raised roughly $6.4 million this year and have over $5 million in the bank. Their challengers have raised just under $3.6 million and have around $2.9 million cash-on-hand. No Democratic challenger outside Santos’ district has outraised their Republican opponent so far this year. In the race for upstate New York's 19th district, Democratic candidate Josh Riley outraised GOP incumbent Rep. Marc Molinaro in the last quarter, but the Republican incumbent has raised more overall as Riley only entered the race in April.
A recent court decision ordering New York to redraw its congressional maps may give Democrats a boost. State leaders bungled the process last year and set in motion a series of court rulings that resulted in a map more beneficial to Republicans than Democrats had hoped.
Elsewhere, in a key race in California’s Orange County to replace Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who launched a campaign to fill the seat being vacated by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, three Democrats have outraised the four Republicans vying for the top two spots in the open primary next March.
State Sen. David Min, who was endorsed by Porter, has raised $924,000, the most among Democrats in the race, though organizer Joanna Weiss has brought in $831,000. The California GOP-backed Scott Baugh, a longtime fixture in Republican politics in the state, raised over $1 million after losing to Porter by a slim margin last year.
“Republicans are off to a strong start in Southern California with candidates who are powerhouse leaders and fundraisers,” NRCC spokesperson Ben Peterson boasted in a statement last week. “While extreme Democrats are mired in a race to the Left, Republicans are building the war chests to win in 2024.”
Spectrum News' Kevin Frey contributed to this report.
NOTE: This article has been updated to clarify fundraising figures in the race for New York's 19th Congressional District.