Note: This is the second installment of a two-part series. Spectrum News 1 featured a three-part series about Stefanik's rise through the Republican Party earlier this month.

New Yorkers in the 21st Congressional District, represented by Republican Elise Stefanik, have continued to support the congresswoman as she's moved politically farther to the right since taking office in 2015. 

It's uncertain how they'll respond to her opponent, Matt Castelli, campaigning as a moderate Democrat to appeal to voters on both sides of the aisle. The former CIA intelligence officer supports access to legal abortion, protecting the Second Amendment and wants an independent commission to address crises at the southern border. 

Moderate candidates are appealing across the political spectrum in the current tense climate, but Luke Perry, a political science professor at Utica University, said the party that turns out the highest number of voters will see victory.

"Even if all the Democrats turn out in NY 21, Castelli's probably going to come up short," Perry said. "It's a number's game."

• SEE ALSO | Stefanik's opponent Matt Castelli stresses moderate campaign in NY-21 race

Republican enrollment outpaces other 21st District voters by tens of thousands of registered voters — a hurdle Perry says will be mathematically difficult to overcome.

And with Democrats in power, Republicans hold an additional advantage this midterm contest.

"Most political scientists, myself included, expect the Republicans to win the House... it's just a matter of by how much?" said Perry, director of the university's Center of Public Affairs and Election Research.

Rising inflation and the economy top the list of issues driving voters to the polls Nov. 8 - especially for senior citizens like Karen Maitland who live on a fixed income.

"It's getting really ridiculous, you know?" she said of the high cost of food, gas and other utilities. "You're going to the supermarket and dropping a couple hundred bucks for nothing. You walk out of there with like three bags of groceries, and you know, it really has to be addressed."

Maitland, a Lake Luzerne resident in Warren County, said she's undecided about what person or political party will get her vote in the gubernatorial and 21st congressional races. But her No. 1 issue is clear.

"People have really been hit in their pocketbooks hard and that's going to be a real deciding factor, I think," she added.

Abortion, public safety and threats to democracy also continue to engage voters this cycle.

Jim Miraglia, whose family has lived in Lake Luzerne since the '40s, blames the Democrats in power for the nation's current state of affairs.

"What has gone right? I mean really, what has gone right in the last two years?" he asked. "I can't think of anything." 

Miraglia, a staunch conservative Republican who supports Stefanik, was quick to dismiss moderate candidates, doubting their possibility on either side of the aisle in Washington.

Dan Tallon, a registered Democrat in the 21st Congressional District, agreed that self-described moderate candidates give him pause.

"Just with someone saying they are, I don't believe that anymore," said Tallon, of Queensbury.

But Tallon and his wife, Marilyn, said centrist candidates could help heal the country's deep partisan divide.

Marilyn Tallon decides what candidates to vote for based on their policies and the person, not a political party label, she said.

"It's just causing more slamming of the horns between groups," she added. "If they're very strongly liberal, it's not going to work, and if they're very strongly conservative, you just can't have that. It's not going to mix. It curdles, is what happens."

"Usually, the truth is found in the middle of these left- and right-wing, so I try to head for that," Dan Tallon said.

Residents from just outside the 21st Congressional District cast doubt North Country constituents would support a moderate candidate.

"When you take the North Country, they don't want to be moderate," said Jason Shepard, a registered Democrat from Round Lake. "I think they're going to go the other way. They don't want moderate in the North Country. They're just gung-ho GOP."

Miraglia says he hasn't been impressed with more moderate Republicans like U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell or U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from California.

"What have they done for us?" he said. "I'm MAGA all the way, and that's the way it's going to be."

Mobilizing new people who haven't voted before is a moderate candidate's best way to make inroads in a district they aren't favored to win, Perry says. Incumbents in the House of Representatives are re-elected 95% of the time, he added.

Stefanik and Castelli continue to disagree over specifics to hold debates for the 21st congressional race with just under six weeks to go until Election Day.

Representatives with Castelli's campaign say he accepted four invitations for debates from local outlets across the North Country, while Stefanik's campaign didn't commit to participate in time. 

"[Congresswoman Stefanik] absolutely looks forward to debating and the campaign is in multiple discussions with media outlets," Stefanik's senior advisor Alex Degrasse said in a statement.

Details about a debate continue to take shape, but the congresswoman will not accept Castelli picking the outlets, dates or debate format, DeGrasse added.