Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and her Republican opponent, Rep. Lee Zeldin, will square off Tuesday night at 7 p.m. in what is expected to be their only televised debate of the general election on Spectrum News 1 and NY1 at Pace University.
Polls have shown the race narrowing in recent weeks as issues like public safety and crime bubble back up to the forefront of the race. But there will also be other issues the candidates will answer for, including voters' concerns over the economy as well as threats to democracy.
Here are five things to watch for in tonight's debate.
1. Crime time.
Zeldin has focused almost exclusively on public safety issues in the final weeks of the campaign, pledging to declare a state of emergency around the issue and suspend recently approved criminal justice law changes to cash bail, juvenile justice, evidence discovery and the usage of solitary confinement.
But Hochul in the last week has sought to shore up her campaign on the issue as polls show a more competitive race. She's touted safety for subways, more State Police troopers and efforts to gun illegal guns off the street.
Crime draws in overlapping concerns around mass transit and the economy. Which argument will resonate more with voters: Hochul's push to get illegal guns off the streets of New York, or Zeldin's effort to repeal the bail law?
2. It's the economy.
The health of the nation's economy has been on nearly everyone's mind amid spiking inflation and sustained pain at the gas pump. An economic slump nationally could hurt New York and its budget plans for next year.
Hochul has pointed to the budget this year, setting aside money in the state's "rainy day" fund as a bulwark against lost tax revenue and still preserving money for health care and education. Zeldin has pledged to cut taxes across the board in a high-tax state.
There's very little state government can do to control the macro economy, but New York is uniquely at risk during a recession given the state's reliance on Wall Street for tax money. How the candidates spell out their plans for preparing for a financial downturn could prove key for voters who have identified the economy as a top issue.
3. Jobs.
New York has struggled to fully bring back the jobs lost during the initial weeks of the pandemic and the subsequent closure of businesses and public gathering spaces. The state lost about 2 million jobs all told, and projections show it may still take several years to regrow them.
Hochul can tout Micron's plans to bring high-tech chip manufacturing jobs to central New York. Zeldin has promised to push for an end to the state's legislatively approved ban on hydrofracking and allow for gas drilling in the Southern Tier.
We're in a tight labor market now, but given the economic clouds, they could once again be at a premium.
4. Abortion.
Hochul has sought to highlight for voters, not just her support for abortion rights, but also Zeldin's opposition. Zeldin, meanwhile, cut a TV ad of his own insisting he wouldn't change the existing law in New York.
The debate over abortion was reignited this year when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision, sending the issue back to state governments.
New York's abortion laws have expanded in recent years, and Hochul has pledged money to aid women from other states where the laws have become more restrictive and enable them to get the procedure in New York.
But polling has also shown abortion has dropped from the list of key issues for voters. In a tight and polarizing race, how voters — especially suburban women — feel about abortion rights could still be a resonant concern.
5. Trump.
Zeldin had been an ally of Trump's, received his endorsement in the race and held a fundraiser at his New Jersey resort. But he's also kept Trump at arm's length and the two have not campaigned together.
Hochul's campaign has pointed to Zeldin's opposition to certifying some state electors in the 2020 presidential campaign and has tried to tie him to the broader Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, which Zeldin has condemned.
Have voters in New York moved on from former President Donald Trump? How nationalized has the race for New York governor truly become? In a polarized environment, "threats to democracy" mean vastly different things to different voters.