The seven judges on New York's top court are all appointees of Democratic governors. But that's not necessarily a guarantee they will side with the Democratic-drawn House maps that are facing a final challenge in the Court of Appeals this week.
"Regardless of party, the judges of the court are going to look very strongly at whether this process in a way that follows with the constitution and they have a strict duty that ensures that constitutional language that was approved by the people is followed to a T," said Rob Rosborough, a partner at the law firm Whiteman, Osterman and Hanna and the editor of a blog on the court, in an interview with Capital Tonight.
The court on Tuesday heard oral arguments in the ongoing legal challenge to the legislative drawn maps. The stakes for both Democrats and Republicans are potentially enormous: the House of Representatives is narrowly divided between the two parties, and Republicans are expected to make national gains this year.
Redistricting experts, good-government advocates and Republicans have complained the maps overtly favor Democratic incumbents and candidates in violation of the state constitution's ban on partisan redistricting, known as gerrymandering. But Rosborough pointed to the questions asked by judges on Tuesday that leaned more on whether lawmakers followed the process.
"It was very surprising to me that most of the focus was on the process of adopting these maps," he said.
Lawmakers were handed the pen earlier this year to draw the new lines as part of the once-a-decade process after a commission failed to reach an agreement. If the lines are struck down, a complex situation could get even messier: Lawmakers could be asked to go back to the literal drawing board, the commission could be asked to draw new lines or a special master could be appointed to take over the process.
"The real two options are send it back to the Independent Redistricting Commission to do its job again and then send new maps for the Legislature for consideration or send it back to the Legislature itself to try to correct the errors the court points out," Rosborough said.
Early voting for the Republican and Democratic primaries is set to begin June 18. Lawmakers, as well as Gov. Kathy Hochul, are watching the outcome to determine if changes are needed to the political calendar this year in order to accomodate any changes to the maps.