New York is all but a lock for Democrat Kamala Harris in the presidential race. But down ballot, it’s proving to be a pivotal battleground.

Control of the U.S. House next year may hinge on the outcome of elections in a half dozen congressional districts across the state — from the shores of Long Island Sound to the leafy Hudson Valley to Syracuse.

Two years ago, a red wave that was predicted to sweep the nation only rolled through certain pockets, including New York. Republicans, riding anger over state bail reform and a bump in crime, flipped several New York suburban and exurban districts, helping the GOP to secure a thin majority in the House.

Now, with another election around the corner, New York could again be make or break for both parties.

“People have said to me, ‘Oh, you don’t have to vote in New York state, because you know how it’s going,’ ” Hudson Valley voter Linda Doerr told Spectrum News. “I say, ‘Oh my goodness, you do need to vote in New York state because the down ballot is what’s really, really critical.’ ”

The key races are: 

  • District 1: Rep. Nick LaLota (R) v. John Avlon (D)
  • District 3: Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) v. Mike LiPetri (R)
  • District 4: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) v. Laura Gillen (D)
  • District 17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R) v. Mondaire Jones (D)
  • District 18: Rep. Pat Ryan (D) v. Alison Esposito (R)
  • District 19: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) v. Josh Riley (D)
  • District 22: Rep. Brandon Williams (R) v. John Mannion (D)

The high stakes are drawing big money. 

When it is all said and done, the Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC, for instance, will have invested more than $40 million across New York. Its Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, will have spent at least $35 million statewide.

The candidates in the key races have also raised millions, with Democrats often holding a financial edge.

Jeffries v. Stefanik

The fight for New York is in part a proxy battle between two New York heavyweights on Capitol Hill.

If Democrats flip control of the House, Brooklyn Congressman Hakeem Jeffries is set to become the next Speaker. Jeffries would be the first person of color and first person representing a district in New York City to hold the job.

If Republicans hold on, it will be a win for North Country Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, the House GOP Conference Chair and a top ally of former President Donald Trump.

“It is going to come down to a margin of error in a number of these seats,” Stefanik told Spectrum News Tuesday. “Every vote is going to matter.”

Stefanik is working with the New York GOP in hopes of driving up fundraising and voter outreach. The GOP message, in part, has aimed at picking off voters who may be frustrated with the Democrats’ longstanding dominance in New York.

“It's going to be an impact this election cycle as well, particularly on those Long Island seats, in the suburban areas surrounding New York City,” Stefanik said.

Last year, Jeffries teamed up with Gov. Kathy Hochul and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand to launch a Democratic coordinated campaign with the goal of reversing their 2022 fortunes.

“We’ve got 37 offices” across the battleground districts, Gillibrand said. “We’ve registered all the college campuses to vote in the five districts, and we’ve done a lot of outreach: Outreach to Black communities, Hispanic communities, AAPI communities.”

So far, a Hochul aide says, the coordinated campaign initiative has knocked on 700,000 doors and made 2.8 million calls.

The top of the ticket

Though New York may not be a presidential battleground, the matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could help sway the congressional races.

Lawrence Levy, the executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, says how Trump and Harris perform could be “the single biggest influence” on the outcome of the down-ballot contests.

Democrats in New York noted an increase in enthusiasm when Harris took over for Joe Biden atop the presidential ticket earlier this year. Republicans, though, argue polling shows she is still underperforming how Biden fared four years ago.

Back in 2022, it was Gov. Hochul atop the ticket.

In the aftermath of those midterms, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested that the governor’s handling of her 2022 re-election bid was a drag on down ballot races across the state, helping cost Democrats control of the House. That is an assertion Hochul has pushed back on.

This year, while she may not be on the ballot, Hochul has some skin in the game. How New York Democrats perform in the congressional contests could help reset the narrative.

“If the Democrats do prevail, clearly she's in a much better position,” Levy said. “If the Democrats don't prevail, despite the effort by [Hochul] and Hakeem Jeffries and other Democrats, there may be a price to pay.”

“What that price is, you know, is hard to say,” he continued.

Hochul, in a statement, said, “We're in the final stretch and our coordinated campaign is reaching more voters in New York's battleground districts than ever before, driving turnout for Democrats up and down the ballot, and paving the path to flip the House majority in November.”

Election day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Early voting begins on Saturday, Oct. 26.