Schools across New York are dealing with the impacts of a nationwide milk carton shortage due to lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the supply chain, observers say.

Shahab Derhami, an assistant professor of business analytics and operations at Binghamton University, said it's called a supply chain for a reason.

“The reason we call it a set of players that provide us with products a supply chain is because they are all connection to one another, so if one link faces distress, disruption or demand fluctuations, it will propagate to the entire system,” Derhami said.

This is referred to as the bull-whip effect, which refers to the amplification of the impact as it goes down the chain, he said.

“During COVID, because of social distancing practices, many businesses had to shut down, and then once we got back to normal operations, many of these businesses struggled to resume their operations, especially those that are upstream of supply chain, for example, paper manufacturers,” Derhami said.

The solution he sees is to use different alternatives to package milk products, such as plastic, while the supply chain issue is resolved.

“I think it’s very important for these organizations to follow recommendations from officials on using alternative approaches because if they substitute milk with other products like juice, then we’re going to see the upstream of milk production, like farmers and dairy producers, are going to be in trouble,” Derhami said.

Milk is very perishable, produced at a constant rate, so if schools substitute the product with juice, it could lead to an oversupply, Derhami said.

A.J. Wormuth, vice president of the Northeast Dairy Producers Association and a dairy farmer in Elbridge, said the issue is not related to the actual supply of fluid milk. He said it's a packaging issue.

“There is still plenty of milk in New York. The cows produce 24/7, 365 days a year, so this is strictly a pint size, or half-pint size, carton issue for the processors to be able to supply milk in cartons that size,” Wormuth said.

Half-pints are scarce right now as the milk industry faces a shortage of cartons.

The Rochester City School District said the shortage means it won't be able provide milk with meals and will offer juice instead. Other districts are thinking about taking different avenues.

“We’ve been told that my distributor has enough probably to get us through this week and maybe to the start of next week, and then they will start sending gallons of milk instead of the cartons," said Tracy Sullivan, kitchen manager for the Sandy Creek Central School District.

Sullivan plans on putting the milk into insulated thermal dispensers, and will serve it to students using cups. She says implementing the plan under short notice is a challenge.

“I think its more stressful coming up with a solution to the problem," she said. "It is gonna add extra work to my staff and the staff that works in the elementary cafeteria.”

Sullivan's distributor told her suppliers are working to find alternative packaging, but the shortage will last at least one to two months. And Sullivan says even students who still receive milk with their lunches could feel impacts down the line.

“When we can’t get the bottled milk, or it's just not feasible, then we’ll have to be pouring the milk for all the students. So that’s obviously going to slow our serving line down. More clean up, more waste," Sullivan said.

Despite the challenges, she thinks they will be OK, and for now, milk is still an option.

“That’s the most important thing, is that we continue to serve that milk until it's just not feasible anymore," she said.

While the impact is not severe enough to impact farmers yet, Wormuth said it could if there are changes in demand.

“If demand were to suffer, then that would impact dairy farmers. But we trust that our processors and cooperatives are doing everything they can to work with their customers to maintain the volume of milk that they’re getting out,” he said.

Upstate Niagara Cooperative, a milk processor in Lancaster, said in a statement it is continuing to seek solutions to the milk packaging supply disruption. The cooperative is offering customers half gallons of low-fat and fat free white milks and low-fat chocolate milks to be poured into cups at schools as a current solution, the statement said.

“Our 260 dairy farm family owners operate with the purpose to nourish life. We intend to deliver on that purpose despite the packaging challenges that we are facing,” John Gould, president and chairman of the board at the cooperative said in a statement.

The state Department of Education is allowing flexibility in their requirement of serving milk due to the disruption in the supply chain. It allows schools to pour milk into individual cups, offer different types of milk, offer milk alternatives and as a last resort, not offer milk altogether.