If we keep up with current social distancing measure, the threat of COVID-19 overwhelming hospitals in Erie County stays small, according to a new University at Buffalo model.

New York state has eyes on May 15, the date Gov. Andrew Cuomo has marked to begin easing up on some of its restrictions.

"If we maintain social distancing, things will stay relatively flat," explained Dr. Peter Winkelstein, executive director of the University at Buffalo's Institute for Healthcare Informatics.

But what if we don't? Dr. Winkelstein, says that according to UB's new COVID-19 impact model, Erie County hospitalizations are projected to rise. What we don't want is overwhelming these hospitals.  

"It probably, really doesn't start to get better until we have a vaccine," said Dr. Winkelstein.

Erie County Health Commissioner Dr. Gale Burstein echoed Winkelstein, that people need to continue wearing masks and be careful what they touch. The health department has been heavily aiding in testing and contract tracing.

"We have a whole army of contact tracers. We do contract tracing on every single case that is identified in Erie County regardless of the lab," Dr. Burstein explained.

The number of contract tracers Erie County has depends on the number of positive cases received from the New York state Department of Health. Their job is to find out and monitor who's been in contact with a positive case.

"And then contacting every single contact, making sure they are strongly encouraged to get their own tests to see if they are infected," she added.

Even in the past 24 hours, county health information shows hospitalizations have increased.

"There is no way to predict that because the model doesn't know what we are doing," stated Dr. Winkelstein.

So, could a loosening of restrictions, specifically here in Erie County, potentially not happen on May 15?

That's up to the governor to decide.