RALEIGH- On Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau announced that North Carolina now has over 10 million citizens. That makes it the ninth most populous state, with the fifth highest growth rate in the country. But that growth is not evenly distributed. The big cities are getting even bigger and rural areas remain less populated.
“People in the rural part of the state are going to lose power,” said David McLennan with Meredith College. “That's what happens when districts get redrawn differently.”
Political observers say the population shift is important. In the long term, it will mean both congressional and legislative districts will be drawn much differently.
“The district lines have to become much bigger geographically to encompass a sufficient number of people for it to be about the same population as a district in Charlotte or Raleigh where the density of population makes it possible for the district lines to be relatively compact,” said Joe Stewart with the NC Free Enterprise Foundation.
In the short term, it means district lines that remain in place until the next census are out of compliance with the ideal district size. In fact, according to a new analysis by the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina, every congressional district is outside the margin of error, as well as 50 of the 120 state House seats, and 17 or the 50 state Senate seats.
“It’s just remarkable the large growth of population that's occurring there,” said Stewart. “Some of these state House and state Senate districts, 13, 14, 15,000 more people living within those district lines than when they were drawn back using the 2010 census. There is no greater indication of the rural urban divide emerging in this state.”
And as we head in to the 2016 elections, observers say this could mean competitive districts could be moving.
“What we get used to in terms of politics, the demographics between parties and what districts are competitive and are not at the beginning of a 10-year cycle can look different at the end," said Steven Greene with NC State University.
The next official census is taken in 2020, and new district lines will be drawn in 2021.