ORLANDO — Hurricane Irma, the most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in recorded history, made its first landfall in the islands of the northeast Caribbean early Wednesday, roaring along a path pointing to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before possibly heading for Florida over the weekend.
The eye of Hurricane Irma passed over the island of Barbuda early Wednesday morning in the northern Leeward Islands, producing wind gusts of more than 155 mph.
Much of the Caribbean now under a hurricane watch or warning
As of 2 p.m. AST, the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.5 north, longitude 64.7 west. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will continue to move over portions of the Virgin Islands during the next couple of hours, pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph, with higher gusts. Irma is a Category 5 hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful Category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. An unofficial observation on Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands has recently reported sustained winds of 106 mph with a gust to 131 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
The government of Curacao on behalf of Sint Maartin has discontinued the hurricane warning for Sint Maartin. The government of Antigua has discontinued the hurricane warning for Anguilla.
Here's a summary of watches and warnings in effect:
Hurricane Warnings:
- Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
- Dominican Republican from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti
- Guadeloupe
- Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
Hurricane Watches:
- Southeastern Bahamas
- Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
- Central Bahamas
Tropical Storm Warnings:
- Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to the southern border with Haiti
- Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
The official forecast cone includes parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos , southern Bahamas. By late Saturday, Irma will be north of Cuba and nearing the Florida Keys.
Irma will likely maintain a westward track for the next 24 hours, then take on a west-northwest track as it encounters the southwest edge of a ridge of high pressure over the Central Atlantic. This ridge, along with a trough over the United States will be the driving force for Irma late in the week and into the weekend. Depending on exactly where the trough and ridge position themselves as Irma gets closer to the United States will determine the exact track.
This critical aspect to Irma's track is when it stops traveling west-northwest and gets turned to the north. There is still uncertainty in exactly where that turn to the north might be, but models today have trended with an easterly track with the turn near Cuba or in the southern Bahamas which would take Irma along the east coast of Florida.
Regardless of the specific track, Irma is a large storm with a wind field spanning more than 175 miles so even a distant pass at Florida would have significant impacts. Floridians and visitors are encouraged not to focus on the exact track which will continue to shift as the storm nears. Hurricane plans should be finalized and kits should be checked as this is peak hurricane season.
The peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and the Atlantic basin will likely remain busy over the next week. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.