As the weather pattern shifts again, we're in for more September showers & storms across the Lone Star State. The first round of rain arrives today. It's an overall 50% chance where you are, with high temperatures expected near 90 under mostly cloudy skies.
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Given the abundant moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Pacific, and the general slow movement of the disturbance now overhead, we could end up with some fairly heavy downpours at times and run the risk of flash flooding, especially by the weekend. Please be weather-aware in the days ahead!
Some of that Pacific impact comes from what was briefly TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19 near Baja California. Several models show the remnants moving towards North Texas, spreading the moisture our direction.
Here at home, Futurecast shows a wave of scattered showers & storms moving through the area from the west, mostly during the afternoon hours today. We expect even more storms to develop with the heat of the day tomorrow (60% chance overall) then, thanks to a weak front that we think will be falling apart nearby, a band of storms might move through the Austin area late Friday night or early Saturday morning (70% chance.)
Previously, high pressure was forecast to return to the picture by Sunday, which would normally cut off the rain chance, but that's no longer the case. Computer models now show a low pressure trough hanging out over Texas through early next week, and that's why we now have a fairly heft rain chance continuing into Monday and Tuesday, at least.
A fairly strong first cold front of fall is expected to make it to the Gulf Coast at some point next Wednesday, and it could deliver the coolest weather we've had around here since May. Stay tuned!
As of now, the latest forecast calls for some widespread 2 to 4 inch totals with isolated 6 to 8 inch totals possible. Be sure to join us for 'Weather on the 1s' for an in-depth look at the latest models.
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Enjoy the weather!
--Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons (@Burton_Spectrum)