The wet weather pattern continues around Austin and, by now, you know the drill: don't leave home without an umbrella. Today's forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers & storms, mostly in the late afternoon to early evening hours, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
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Today marks our 11th day in a row of rain in the region, and it looks like we have five or so more to go. No kidding!
Our in-house Futurecast model shows brief but potentially disruptive storms trying to develop with the heat of the day, likely moving into the I-35 corridor from the east. Time frame? Around 2 p.m. to sunset (7:40 p.m.) And tomorrow's outlook is very similar.
Meanwhile, while most of the nation watches HURRICANE FLORENCE near the southeast, we've got our own system to keep an eye on in the Gulf of Mexico. As we've mentioned the past two days, there's a pretty good chance for rain from this system no matter what it becomes. NOAA currently predicts a 60% chance it'll become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION in the next 48 hours and it might even grow into TROPICAL STORM JOYCE.
Nearly all of our computer models points to a landfall somewhere along the Lower or Middle Texas Coast by Friday evening, with rain spreading all the way up across Central Texas into Saturday. That said, there's still a LOT of uncertainty with this forecast. Please stay tuned!
Given our saturated grounds, it won't take much rain to cause flash flooding in the southern half of the state. The latest outlook puts some 2" to 3" totals into our area, and some half foot or even heavier accumulations could occur along the coast to our south and the Rio Grande to our southwest.
We will show you the latest computer models and rainfall projections plus have the very latest on FLORENCE on 'Weather on the 1s' today -- we're on every 10 minutes on TV or the live stream, so be sure to join us!
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Enjoy the weather!
--Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons (@Burton_Spectrum)