Austin officially topped out at 98 yesterday (with a heat index of 102) and that's the same territory we'll end up in again today.  Plan for lots of afternoon sunshine and a gusty southeast breeze.

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Today's records do not look to be in jeopardy.  The numbers to beat?  103 (1953) at Mabry and 101 (1953) at the Airport.

In the upper atmosphere, high pressure is off to our northwest and a weak disturbance is located east.  Latest computer models show the high pressure ridge weakening and easing further north into the Great Plains over the next few days, and that means it'll have less of a hot grip on Texas.  Yay!  As a result, temperatures should ease back down by a few degrees -- we're calling for low to mid 90s by Friday and Saturday then maybe just barely touching 90 on Sunday.

And the rain chance starts to rise again, thanks to an influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a developing tropical wave.  Look for the sea breeze to become active both Thursday and Friday afternoon with a slightly better 20% rain chance for our area.

We're keeping a close eye on the Caribbean where, according to NOAA, it's a low but noted 20% chance for tropical development over the next five days.  It's too early to tell whether or not this area of low pressure will organize and become a closed circulation but, no matter what, we've got more confidence that it'll bring rain to Texas and the east coast of Mexico as it heads into the West Gulf for the end of the week.

Here at home, odds for rain are now as good as 40% on Sunday and 30% Monday & Tuesday.  The long range models show waves of showers -- some of it heavy -- into early next week.  How much might we get here at home?  Again, it's too early to tell for sure but, as of right now, the models hint at some 1/2" to 1" accumulation potential.  NOAA suggests it could end up being much heavier for the coast.  

Be sure to join us for 'Weather on the 1s' on TV or the live stream as we talk about this scenario and the possible outcomes for our region.

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Keep cool & stay hydrated!
--Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons (@Burton_Spectrum)