You certainly won't need your umbrella all day but, at times, it could come in handy as a cold front sweeps across Texas today. Ahead of the front, we're feeling plenty of warmth and will look for afternoon highs in the low 80s.
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It's an overall 40% rain/storm chance with an expected peak in the late afternoon to early evening. Our latest computer models show a batch of storms popping up first in the Hill Country then moving into the Austin area by or before the afternoon commute. Some lingering rain could continue as late as the 10 o'clock hour before it all shifts southeast following the front.
The front, by the way, will bring cooler and drier air to follow into the night. It's going to be a cold start worthy of a jacket tomorrow, with suburban/Hill Country 40s and a metro low near 50 for sunrise. Skies will gradually clear out, bringing us back into nearly total sunshine for tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
Our in-house model now predicts widespread 1/10" to 1/4" totals with this event. Where storms develop, we could see some 1/4" to 1/2" totals pick up really quickly, and that's what the model suggests for the Austin area though we think it'll be very hit-or-miss.
We look forward to some cool mornings and mild afternoons to close out the week. Clouds will return over the course of the weekend and new model data now shows a chance for rain back in the picture as soon as Sunday. The jet stream is forecast to take on an almost "atmospheric river"-like setup next week that might usher several rounds of rain through Texas. For now, we're not overly confident in this scenario panning out but we'll at least bring up a 30% rain chance Sunday through next Wednesday.
Be sure to join us for 'Weather on the 1s' on TV or the live stream as we track these storms.
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Enjoy the weather!
--Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons (@Burton_Spectrum)