If the forecast pans out, we could have some hearty two to three inch rain accumulations here around Austin this week, exactly what we need to beat out a rain deficit of nearly three inches so far in 2018. We'll be cloudy, breezy and warm today with highs in the mid 70s. It's an overall 30% rain chance today rising to 40% tonight & tomorrow.
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Further north, the bullseye of 4-6"+ totals from Waco to Texarkana and beyond could mean trouble for travelers in the form of flash flooding. Here's a look at the rain forecast for the next week. Please stay aware of the weather this week, especially if you're planning to hit the roads!
A stream of moisture & energy from the Pacific combines with abundant Gulf moisture to "charge" our atmosphere for this event.
Computer models currently show three distinct rounds of rain coming our way. The first is expected to erupt southwest of Austin tonight, with storms blowing up closer to the border. We think the second round of downpours could happen tomorrow night. Then a third round is expected with the cold front on Wednesday -- it'll likely be the heaviest.
The front is currently timed to arrive Wednesday AM, then temps are forecast to drop to 50s then 40s during the afternoon with showers generally tapering. We'll continue with a 30% rain chance in the works Thursday and Friday. As luck would have it, another cold front is scheduled to arrive Saturday and it brings at least a 40% storm chance into the picture. It'll be fairly weak, we think, with daytime highs near 70 both Saturday & Sunday.
Again, as mentioned, it's going to be a busy week so be sure to check with us often for updates on 'Weather on the 1s' on TV and/or the live streams.
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Be safe!
--Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons (@Burton_Spectrum)