It took just over one half into the regular season for Josh Allen to take the field and days later be named the Bills starting quarterback. Sean McDermott called it “the right move” ad nauseam – a move that the vast of majority you were calling for immediately after Nathan Peterman’s dreadful performance in Baltimore.

The minority, though, had the majority of the same reasoning behind their stance.

Just looking at the roster heading into training camp was a cause for concern, but seeing how things went in the opener heightening the awareness of how badly this Bills offense lacks weapons, so I decided to look back at every quarterback drafted in the 1st round over the past 10 years (and a few fringe guys of note) to see when they got their first start, how they did in that debut, how the rookie season went overall, and the supporting cast surrounding them on offense.

The data is below. Also note: Patrick Mahomes started just one game last season, so I left him out and Jake Locker did not start a game his rookie season. 

First, the record of those rookie QBs in their first start is 10-19. The TD-to-INT ratio is 32-34. The average passing yards by the 29 guys in their first ever start is 201, with 13 players failing to eclipse that mark (Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, Johnny Manziel, Derek Carr, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson, Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Tim Tebow, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco).

Only four QBs from this group threw for 300+ yards in their starting debut (Cam Newton, RGIII, Andrew Luck, Teddy Bridgewater). The high man is Newton with 422. The low man is Manziel with just 80 (Dalton a close 2nd with 81 yards). Weeden threw four interceptions.

So looking at all those stats should have your expectations for Josh Allen this Sunday low. Very low. And not just because you aren't a fan of his supporting cast. Bridgewater and Luck went over 300 yards with the likes of Matt Asiata, Jerick McKinnon, Donald Brown, and Coby Fleener around them. Conversely, Ryan, Dalton, Weeden, and Watson failed to go over 200 yards with guys like Roddy White, AJ Green, Josh Gordon, and DeAndre Hopkins as their top targets.

There is no debate that the Bills roster needs serious upgrades, especially on offense. McDermott himself hammered that point home this past Monday by reference repeatedly how this is very early in just the 2nd year of their roster build. But it all begins at quarterback, where the reigns have been handed to Allen and should stay there for the remainder of the season. History has shown it is likely more mistakes will be made than not, but it is all about progress. The past 10 rookie QBs to start 15 or more game their first year all threw for more than 3,000 yards, with seven of those 10 tossing 20+ TDs, so that is the bar I am setting.

When all is said and done in 2018, Josh Allen should finish close to 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns with likely 15 or so interceptions. It is what first round quarterbacks have done recently and what I feel is a fair expectation to see out of the 7th overall pick.

Here's the dive into the stats:

Mitch Trubisky (2nd overall pick 2017) - Started 5th game of rookie season

1st start: 12/25 for 128 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss

Season: 12 games, 59.4% completion, 2,193 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Jordan Howard, WR Kendall Wright, TE Zach Miller

Deshaun Watson (12th overall pick 2017) - Started 2nd game of rookie season

​1st start: 15/24 for 125 yards, 0 TD or INT in win

Season: 7 games, 61.8% completion, 1,699 yards, 7 TDs, 7 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Lamar Miller, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Braxton Miller

Jared Goff (1st overall pick 2016) - Started 10th game of rookie season

1st start: 17/31 for 134 yards, 0 TD or INT in loss

Season: 7 games, 54.6% completion, 1,089 yards, 5 TD, 7 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Todd Gurley, WR Kenny Britt, WR Tavon Austin

Carson Wentz (2nd overall pick 2016) - Started 1st game of rookie season

​1st start: 22/37 for 278 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in win

Season: 16 games, 62.4% completion, 3,782 yards, 16 TD, 14 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Ryan Mathews, WR Jordan Matthews, TE Zach Ertz

Paxton Lynch (26th overall pick in 2016) ​Started 5th game of rookie season

1st start: 23/35 for 223 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss

Season: 3 games, 59% completion, 497 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Supporting Cast: RB C.J. Anderson, WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Emmanuel Sanders

Dak Prescott (4th round pick in 2016) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 24/45 for 227 yards, 0 TD or INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 67.8% completion, 3,667 yards, 23 TD, 4 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten

Jameis Winston (1st overall pick in 2015) ​- Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 16/33 for 210 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 58.3% completion, 4,042 yards, 22 TD, 15 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Doug Martin, WR Vincent Jackson, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Marcus Mariota (2nd overall pick in 2015)​ - Started 1st game of rookie season

​1st start: 13/15 for 209 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT in win

Season: 12 games, 62.2% completion, 2,818 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Bishop Sankey, WR Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker

Blake Bortles (3rd overall pick in 2014) - Started 4th game of rookie season

1st start: 29/37 for 254 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT in loss

Season: 14 games, 58.9% completion, 2,908 yards, 11 TD, 17 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Toby Gerhart, WR Allen Hurns, WR Allen Robinson

Johnny Manziel (22nd overall pick in 2014) - Started 14th game of rookie season

1st start: 10/18 for 80 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT in loss

Season: 5 games, 51.4% completion, 175 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Terrance West, WR Josh Gordon, WR Travis Benjamin

Teddy Bridgewater (32nd overall pick in 2014)​ - Started 4th game of rookie season

1st start: 19/30 for 317 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT in win

Season: 13 games, 64.4% completion, 2,919 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Matt Asiata, RB Jerick McKinnon, WR Greg Jennings

Derek Carr (2nd round pick in 2014) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 20/32 for 151 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 58.1% completion, 3,270 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Darren McFadden, WR Rod Streater, WR James Jones

EJ Manuel (16th overall pick in 2013) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 18/27 for 150 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in loss

Season: 13 games, 58.8% completion, 1,972 yards, 11 TD, 9 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Fred Jackson, RB C.J. Spiller, WR Stevie Johnson

Andrew Luck (1st overall pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 23/45 for 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 54.1% completion, 4,374 yards, 23 TD, 18 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Donald Brown, WR Reggie Wayne, TE Coby Fleener

Robert Griffin III (2nd overall pick in 2012)​ - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 19/26 for 320 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in win

Season: 15 games, 65.6% completion, 3,200 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Alfred Morris, WR Pierre Garcon, WR Santana Moss

Ryan Tannehill (8th overall pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 20/36 for 219 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 58.3% completion, 3,294 yards, 12 TD, 13 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Reggie Bush, WR Brian Hartline, WR Davone Bess

Brandon Weeden (22nd overall pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 12/35 for 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT in loss

Season: 15 games, 57.4% completion, 3,385 yards, 14 TD, 17 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Trent Richardson, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, WR Josh Gordon

Russell Wilson (3rd round pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 18/34 for 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 64.1% completion, 3,118 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Braylon Edwards, TE Zach Miller

Cam Newton (1st overall pick in 2011) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 24/37 for 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 60% completion, 4,051 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT

Supporting Cast: RB DeAngelo Williams, RB Jonathan Stewart, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen

Blaine Gabbert (10th overall pick in 2011) - Started 3rd game of rookie season

1st start: 12/21 for 139 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss

Season: 15 games, 57.9% completion, 2,214 yards, 12 TD, 11 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Maurice-Jones Drew, WR Mike Thomas, TE Mercedes Lewis

Christian Ponder (12th overall pick in 2011) ​- Started 7th game of rookie season

1st start: 13/32 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT in loss

Season: 11 games, 54.3% completion, 1,853 yards, 13 TD, 13 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin, WR Michael Jenkins

Andy Dalton (2nd round pick in 2011) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 10/15 for 81 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in win

Season: 16 games, 58.1% completion, 3,398 yards, 20 TD, 13 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Cedric Benson, WR AJ Green, TE Jermaine Gresham

Sam Bradford (1st overall pick in 2010) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 32/55 for 253 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 60% completion, 3,512 yards, 18 TD, 15 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Steven Jackson, WR Mark Clayton, WR Danny Amendola

Tim Tebow (25th overall pick in 2010) - Started 14th game of rookie season

1st start: 8/16 for 138 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in loss

Season: 9 games, 50% completion, 654 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Knowshon Moreno, WR Brandon Lloyd, WR Jabar Gaffney

Matthew Stafford (1st overall pick in 2009)​ - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 16/37 for 205 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT in loss

Season: 16 games, 53.3% completion, 2,267 yards, 13 TD, 20 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Kevin Smith, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Bryant Johnson

Mark Sanchez (5th overall pick in 2009) ​- Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 18/31 for 272 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in win

Season: 15 games, 53.9% completion, 2, 444 yards, 12 TD, 20 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Thomas Jones, WR Jericho Cotchery, TE Dustin Keller

Josh Freeman (17th overall pick in 2009) - Started 8th game of rookie season

1st start: 14/31 for 205 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT in win

Season: 10 games, 54.5% completion, 1,855 yards, 10 TD, 18 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Cadillac Williams, WR Antonio Bryant, TE Kellen Winslow

Matt Ryan (1st overall pick in 2008)​ - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 9/13 for 161 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in win

Season: 16 games, 61.1% completion, 3,440 yards, 16 TD, 11 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Michael Turner, WR Michael Jenkins, WR Roddy White

Joe Flacco (18th overall pick in 2008) - Started 1st game of rookie season

1st start: 15/29 for 129 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT in win

Season: 16 games, 60% completion, 2,971 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT

Supporting Cast: RB Ray Rice, RB Le'Ron McClain, WR Derek Mason