SYRACUSE, N.Y. -- With candidates heading down the home stretch, the Syracuse mayoral race is starting to shape up.

Several hopefuls are still in the mix, but our exclusive Syracuse.com/Spectrum News/Siena College Research Institute Poll of 571 likely city voters shows it's a tight two-person race.

"We have the Democrat in the lead right now, with 35 percent of likely voters saying they're supporting Juanita Perez Williams, but in second place is Ben Walsh, the candidate running on the Independence Party. He's seven points back with 28 percent support among likely voters," said Siena College Research Institute Pollster Steven Greenberg.

Fourteen percent of likely voters don't know. Even with a month left, Greenberg says that's not surprising.

"We just came off a Democratic primary a few weeks ago,” Greenberg said. “The campaigns are really just starting to heat up now."

Our poll has Republican Laura Lavine and Joe Nicoletti tied at nine percent. Nicoletti lost the Democratic primary to Perez Williams, but he still had the Working Families Party endorsement. He suspended his campaign and is now supporting Perez Williams, but his name will still appear on the ballot. Finally, Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins picked up just five percent in the poll.

"I think what is see is that Nicoletti voters and Hawkins voters are basically taking away votes away from the Democratic candidate, Perez Williams,” Greenberg explained. “Lavine, the Republican candidate, ironically -- we're doing this is in a non-traditional way -- but the Republican candidate is actually taking votes away from Walsh, the Independence Party candidate."

Favorability is another area where the front runners are neck and neck. 

"Perez Williams is viewed favorably by 53 percent of the voters in Syracuse; 23 percent view her unfavorably, very good ratio. Walsh even better: 52 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable,” said Greenberg.

Seventeen percent of voters viewed Lavine favorable; 27 percent viewed her unfavorable. And 55 percent don't know enough about her to have an opinion.

"She's got a really uphill battle if she wants to get back in this race to be competitive, forget winning," Greenberg said.

The person polling the highest in favorability, with 56 percent, is the one person who can't win: current Mayor Stephanie Miner, who has reached her term limit. Her job performance is split among people we polled, with 48 percent of voters saying she's done an excellent or good job, while 49 percent say she's done a fair or poor job.

"What we clearly see is that the voters who most like Stephanie Miner, and most like the job she's done as mayor, they are with Perez Williams,” Greenberg said. “The voters who are unhappy with Mayor Miner are more likely to be in the Walsh camp or with one of the minor party candidates."

We have about four weeks before the general election, which Greenberg says is a long time. The key is for the candidates to work on their get-out-the-vote campaigns, and persuade anyone who might still be undecided.

The margin of error is plus or minus 4.6-percent.

You'll hear more from the candidates Tuesday evening at 6:30, as Spectrum News hosts the first televised debate to take place before the November 7 general election.