In the first Spectrum News/Siena poll in August, half of surveyed Albany Democrats said they would reelect incumbent mayor Kathy Sheehan.
A month later, and Siena pollster Steve Greenberg says not much has changed.
"Right now, she has the support of 51 percent of likely voters, up a point from August," Greenberg.
Challengers Frank Commisso Jr. and Carolyn McLaughlin are far behind: Commisso, harnessing only half the city-wide support of Sheehan — McLaughlin, about a quarter.
One reason is Sheehan's favorability among Democrats: 65 percent. And, she rides a wave of Albany optimism.
"By a wide margin, 63-to-30 percent, these Democratic voters say the city is headed in the right direction," said Greenberg.
On the issues, Siena's poll shows treating neighborhoods fairly is most important to voters — the same theme Sheehan has promoted in campaign ads.
There are slight positives for each candidate: Commisso's percentage of support jumped 6 points; McLaughlin's favorability rose to near 50 percent.
But Sheehan maintains the big lead, and her voters do not plan to change their minds.
"92 percent of Sheehan's voters say they are absolutely certain or fairly certain they're going to stick with their candidate over the closing days of the campaign. It makes it really hard for the challengers, in this case, to try and close that ground," said Greenberg.
The poll's margin of error is 4.6 percent.