There have been some changes in the forecast track for Hurricane Florence over the last 24 hours. However, it is becoming more certain that Florence will bring a dangerous storm surge to the Carolina coast and life-threatening flooding. In the end, the devastating flooding could affect the largest area of the region.
Florence is forecast to remain a category 4 hurricane Wednesday and Thursday as it moves closer to the southeast coast of North Carolina. By late Thursday into Friday, steering patterns in the atmosphere may completely break down causing the storm to stall just off the coast of southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. Florence could then slowly move inland near the state line or some computer models suggest it may move down the South Carolina coast before actually make landfall later in the weekend.
Regardless of which scenario actually happens, Florence is a large hurricane and will affect much of North and South Carolina. The southeast coast of North Carolina will experience a prolonged storm surge reaching up to 9 to 13 feet from near the mouth of the Cape Fear to Cape Lookout.
That same section of coastline and locations to the south near Myrtle Beach will also likely experience a prolonged period of destructive winds resulting in power outages that could last for days or weeks.
Even more troubling is the amount of rain that could fall in southeastern North Carolina due to the storm slowing down or stalling out.
The latest data suggests at least 20 to 30 inches will fall on southeastern North Carolina including the Wilmington, Jacksonville, and Crystal Coast from Thursday through the weekend. Isolated totals of up to 40 inches cannot be completely ruled out. That type of rain would cause historic flooding for the region that would occur during the storm and for days after the rain stops due to river flooding.
A bit farther inland, the rain may not be quite as heavy but flooding will still be a concern from the Sandhills to some locations near I-95. From Lumberton to near or south of Fayetteville to Goldsboro, 10 to 15 inches of rain could fall.
Across the Piedmont, Charlotte could see around 5 to 10 inches of rain. Closer to Raleigh, Durham, and Greensboro the forecast is a bit more uncertain. For now, it appears 4 to 7 inches of rain could fall, but if the storms takes a more southerly track into South Carolina that would reduce the rainfall.
It is very important to point out that changes in the forecast track are still possible, and even small changes in the storm could greatly change the expected conditions in your area. Everyone in the Carolinas should continue to finalize their preparations for the storm Wednesday. Find out now if you live in a flood prone area or a location that will be greatly impacted by storm surge. If you do, move to a higher ground before the storm arrives.
Strong winds and rain could reach the coast Thursday and slowly move inland through the end of the week continuing into the weekend.
Stay with Spectrum News and Weather on the 1s for updates on the storm.