NORTH CAROLINA -- Two years after being detained in Turkey, an American pastor is home. However, analysts say do not expect this to quell tensions between the United States and its NATO ally.
- The detainment of Pastor Andrew Brunson was long a source of frustration for the Trump administration and lawmakers on Capitol Hill
- Experts, however, say that while the Turkish president may have given in on the pastor, it does not mean he will concede on other points of contention
- On Capitol Hill, lawmakers are raising concerns about Turkey’s plan to purchase a Russian missile launcher
The detainment of Pastor Andrew Brunson was long a source of frustration for the Trump administration and lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
Brunson, who is from North Carolina, was swept up in the aftermath of a failed coups in 2016. He faced terrorism-related charges.
On Friday, Turkish officials released him. Within hours, he was in the Oval Office, praying for the President before television cameras.
Days later, President Trump seemed ready to make amends. “I have a very good feeling toward Turkey, two days ago I did not,” he said.
Experts, however, say that while the Turkish president may have given in on the pastor, it does not mean he will concede on other points of contention.
“This is not a reset. This is a narrow, hardball win,” said Lisel Hintz, an assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
“This is [President Recep] Erdogan in a sense being backed into a corner,” she said. “For a lot of different reasons, not to mention the economic reasons and the threat of future US sanctions, has conceded on this issue.”
The U.S. already put sanctions on two Turkish officials, blaming Brunson’s detainment. The Turkish economy has also been struggling, with the value of the country’s currency dropping.
Other trouble is already brewing -- even with the Brunson situation now settled.
On Capitol Hill, lawmakers are raising concerns about Turkey’s plan to purchase a Russian missile launcher. Congress has already made moves to retaliate, including potentially blocking the transfer of U.S.-made fighter jets to the country.
There are also questions as to whether or not Turkey will evade the forthcoming Iran sanctions.
“This is by no means a super amicable relationship,” Hintz said.
For the U.S., Turkey has long been a key strategic ally – a somewhat stable country in a volatile region. It also has a military base the U.S. relies upon.
Hintz said at the end of the day, the best advice may be to proceed with caution.
“Don’t assume this means [Erdogan] will be amenable to suggestions and even to pressure,” Hintz said.